Russia could be ready to launch a major war in Europe within just five years, Denmark’s Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) warned.

The agency said the Kremlin could be tempted to exploit any sign of weakness or political division within NATO to pursue its national interests further using military aggression.

The risk would also be greatly amplified if the Kremlin perceived the US as unwilling to come to the aid of its European partners.

The updated security assessment noted that Russia was already planning for a war with NATO and was ramping up its military capabilities.

The DDIS offered three possible scenarios that could play out following a ceasefire in Ukraine.

It said its analysis was based on the assumption that Russia could not wage war with more than one country at a time.

Option one envisages the Kremlin being able to wage a war with a bordering country within six months.

In the second scenario, Moscow would be ready to start a regional war within two years.

In five years, meanwhile, it could launch a large-scale attack on Europe as long as the US does not get involved.

“Russia is likely to be more willing to use military force in a regional war against one or more European NATO countries if it perceives NATO as militarily weakened or politically divided,” the report authors wrote.

“This is particularly true if Russia assesses that the US cannot or will not support the European NATO countries in a war with Russia.”

Donald Trump has called on Nato member states to spend more on defence, saying they need to allocate 5% of GDP to security—more than double the current target.

The US President has suggested his country could quit the military alliance if its allies refused to pay their fair share.

In 2024, he said would “encourage” Russia to attack any NATO member country that didn’t meet its financial commitments.

Russia‘s Defence Minister said in December that his country had to prepare for war with NATO during a meeting with Putin at the Kremlin.

“The Ministry of Defence of Russia must be ready for any development of events, including a possible military conflict with NATO in Europe in the next decade,” Andrei Belousov said.