Round two of the Six Nations could result in several changes to the official World Rugby rankings, with only Italy and Ireland unable to improve their current placing.

France could replace Ireland as the top ranked European team provided they defeat England and Ireland fall to Scotland while Wales could tumble to an all-time low in the rankings.

We run through the weekend’s World Rugby ranking permutations.

Ireland could fall in defeat

While Ireland cannot surpass South Africa in the rankings even with a comprehensive victory over Scotland, they can cut the Springboks’ advantage at the summit. A win by less than 16 points will earn them 0.58 rating points with a margin of victory of more than 15 points earning them 0.87 points and cutting South Africa’s lead to just 1.13 points.

A defeat of more than 15 points will cost Scotland sixth place but only if England manage to defeat France at Twickenham the day before.

Conversely, if Scotland end their ten-match losing streak to Ireland, they will equal their highest-ever ranking of fifth place, moving ahead of Argentina.

A drawn result in the Scottish capital would leave Ireland and New Zealand level on rating points but a loss to Gregor Townsend’s side will see Ireland surrender third spot to the All Blacks. The lowest the Irish can be ranked after the weekend’s action is fourth.

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This would require Ireland falling to a defeat with either France or Scotland winning by a margin of more than 15 points. This would see France become the highest-ranked European team.

As for England, they will leapfrog Scotland if they win and their Calcutta Cup rivals lose, lifting them into the top six which would be enough for a band one seeding for Men’s Rugby World Cup 2027 if they remain there come the end of the November internationals. The same applies if England win by more than 15 points and Scotland draw with Ireland.

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However, defeat by more than 15 points will see Steve Borthwick’s side slide one place to eighth with Australia the beneficiaries.

A defeat for Fabien Galthie’s side would not see them fall any lower than fourth position.

Wales face worst-ever ranking

Italy head into their clash with Wales looking to claim back-to-back victories over the Welsh for the first time in their history. If they manage to do so, the Azzurri will not improve on their 10th place ranking as there aren’t enough rating points on offer to catch Fiji in ninth.

Gonzalo Quesada’s team will only surrender 10th place to Wales if they suffer a defeat by more than 15 points.

In defeat, Wales will drop to a new all-time low of 12th if they lose and Georgia win at home to the Netherlands in the Rugby Europe Men’s Championship.

This would be the first time that Georgia would sit above Wales since the rankings began in October 2003. This is despite the fact that the Lelos cannot increase their rating this weekend given the 17.29 points between themselves and the Netherlands before home weighting is factored in.

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Six Nations ranking permutations

ITALY (10) 78.41 v WALES (11) 74.01

Italy win by 15 points or less – Italy 78.67, Wales 73.75
Italy win by more than 15 points – Italy 78.80, Wales 73.62
Draw – Italy 77.67, Wales 74.75
Wales win by 15 points or less – Italy 76.67, Wales 75.75
Wales win by more than 15 points – Italy 75.80, Wales 76.62

ENGLAND (7) 82.31 v FRANCE (4) 88.51

England win by 15 points or less – England 83.63, France 87.19
England win by more than 15 points – England 84.29, France 86.53
Draw – England 82.63, France 88.19
France win by 15 points or less – England 81.63, France 89.19
France win by more than 15 points – England 81.27, France 89.53

SCOTLAND (6) 83.57 v IRELAND (2) 90.78

Scotland win by 15 points or less – Scotland 84.99, Ireland 89.36
Scotland win by more than 15 points – Scotland 85.70, Ireland 88.65 Draw – Scotland 83.99, Ireland 90.36
Ireland win by 15 points or less – Scotland 82.99, Ireland 91.36
Ireland win by more than 15 points – Scotland 82.70, Ireland 91.65

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Current World Rugby rankings (As of 07/02/2024)

1 South Africa 92.78
2 Ireland 90.78
3 New Zealand 90.36
4 France 88.51
5 Argentina 84.97
6 Scotland 83.57
7 England 82.31
8 Australia 81.52
9 Fiji 80.07
10 Italy 78.41
11 Wales 74.01
12 Georgia 73.85
13 Japan 72.95
14 Samoa 72.68
15 USA 70.02
16 Portugal 68.82
17 Uruguay 67.06
18 Spain 65.98
19 Tonga 65.46
20 Romania 63.01

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