“They [EU countries] don’t take our cars. They don’t take our farm products. They sell millions and millions of cars in the United States. No, no, no, they are going to have to pay a big price,” said Donald Trump, the Republican US presidential candidate, shortly before the election.

Following his victory,  the EU is now considering its options to address a potential 10% tariff on all EU goods exported to the US – a major proposal from Trump’s 2024 re-election campaign.

Which EU countries would be most affected by a potential 10% tariff? Which European nations have the largest share of the US in their extra-EU exports? What percentage of each EU country’s exports go to the US? 

Euronews Business has analysed the potential impact of Trump’s proposed tariffs by highlighting the value of goods exported to the US by EU countries. 

In 2023, Germany led by a wide margin, exporting €157.7bn in goods to the US according to Eurostat. Italy and Ireland followed, with exports valued at €67.3bn and €51.6bn, respectively.

Together, these three countries make up 55% of the EU’s exports to the US.

France exported €43.9bn, the Netherlands €40.5bn, Belgium €31.3bn, and Spain €18.9bn.

Focusing on shares over volume

Analysing the share of the US in extra-EU exports and the share of the US in total goods exports for each EU country would highlight the potential risks for each nation, even for those with smaller overall export volumes.

“Extra-EU” refers to transactions with all countries outside the EU – in other words, trade with the rest of the world, excluding EU member countries.

In 2023, Ireland had the highest share of exports to the US among EU countries, with 45.8% of its extra-EU exports directed to the US. This means that nearly half of Ireland’s exports outside the EU were destined for the US.

In addition, seven other EU countries had proportions of 20% or more, ranging from 20% to 26%. These countries included Finland, Austria, Portugal, Italy, Germany, Slovakia, and Sweden.

Among the EU’s top four economies, Spain had the lowest share of exports to the US in its extra-EU exports at 13%, followed by France at 16%.

This proportion was less than 10% in seven EU countries. These are Slovenia, Cyprus, Bulgaria, Latvia, Croatia, Romania and Greece.

Share of the US in total exports of goods

Ireland is by far the most reliant EU country on exports to the US. In 2023, more than a quarter (26.6%) of all Irish goods exports were directed to the US, according to the Eurostat. This makes Ireland a clear outlier, highlighting the country’s significant dependence on the US market. 

Finland, Italy and Germany followed, with 11.1%, 10.7% and 9.9% of their total goods exports going to the US, respectively.

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Among the EU’s top four economies, France’s exports to the US accounted for 7.3%, while Spain’s stood at 4.8%.

Nordic countries have significant exports to the US

The US also held a significant share in the exports of the Nordic countries. Besides Finland (11.1%), which ranked second, Sweden (8.9%) and Denmark (8.3%) ranked fifth and sixth among EU countries in terms of export share to the US.

This proportion was also above 5% in other EU countries, including Austria (7.1%), Portugal (6.8%) and Belgium (6.3%).

In total, the share of the US in exports exceeded 5% in 10 EU countries. 

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Thus, a potential 10% tariff on all EU goods exported to the US would have a significant impact not only on Ireland, Germany and Italy but also a number of other countries. 

Swedish PM acknowledges possible “severe impact on Swedish exports”

Accepting the potential risks, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson stated that his country has been preparing for various scenarios and developments. “One risk is a trade war between the US and China, along with higher tariffs in general, which could severely impact Swedish export companies,” he said, according to Swedish media including Ttela.

Finnish exporters face a challenging landscape

Kenneth Kraszewski, Counsel at Borenius Attorneys, noted in his blog that Finnish exporters face a challenging landscape as the US considers imposing tariffs on European goods. The US is Finland’s largest trading partner outside the EU, and “Finnish industries – particularly those in steel, paper, machinery, and technology – could encounter higher barriers to entry into the US market,” he wrote.

The US is the top destination for British exports

Among major European countries outside the EU, the US holds a significant share of the UK’s goods exports. According to the ONS, the US accounted for 15.6% of UK exports in 2023, totalling approximately €74bn (£61.5bn).

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