What can Europe tell us about the upcoming US presidential vote?

Posted by Admin October 14, 2024 Infra

In 2024, European elections highlighted voter dissatisfaction and a shift towards anti-establishment parties, a trend that could influence the US elections.

It’s been dubbed the year of the election. Democracies across the west have seen millions of voters have cast votes already this year.

Austria, Belgium, Croatia, France, Lithuania and Portugal have all voted on new parliaments in planned or snap legislative elections. Romania and (again) Bulgaria are scheduled to vote on legislatures by the end of the year.

In the UK, Labour smashed the long-ruling Torries in July’s parliamentary vote. Presidents were elected in Slovakia, Romania and Lithuania. Countless local and regional elections have also been held, from Germany and Italy to Ireland and Spain.

And of course, in June, tens of millions of European Union residents voted for a new Parliament in Brussels.

Next month, the world’s oldest continuous democracy, the United States, will hold a pivotal vote that includes electing a president, Congress and one third of its Senate.

With many of the same issues attracting the focus on politicians, parties and voters in both Europe and America, Euronews asks: What can Europe’s myriad elections in 2024 tell us about coming vote in the United States?

‘Change’ on the ballot

Establishment versus anti-establishment. Future versus past. Change versus stability. From Europe to America, these themes have been central components to campaign messaging, especially for the challengers.

Across Europe, many incumbent parties and leaders have been struggling with dissatisfaction among voters. That dissatisfaction and the disapproval of key political leaders has shown up in many of this year’s votes.

In Germany, Olaf Scholz and the “traffic light” coalition have been repeatedly blasted in 2024 elections. In June’s EU vote, the Greens and Scholz’s SPD both saw losses in MEPs, while outsider, populist parties on both the radical left (BSW) and far-right (AfD) saw an immense surge in support largely driven by strong disapproval of the ruling coalition.

The trend continued this fall in Germany. In various regional elections, especially in Germany’s east, many voters snubbed concerns of threats to democracy in favour of the change, with AfD and BSW making substantial gains in a series of state votes.

Scholz himself has been the victim of a massive drop in approval ratings, with fewer than 20% of German voters holding a positive opinion of his leadership of the government.

In France, the huge success of the far-right National Rally coupled with the poor performance of Macron’s centrist liberals in June’s European vote led to the French president calling for snap parliamentary elections.

While the outcome of July’s French vote played well into Macron’s calculation for short-term preservation, support for RN grew to 37%. Another quarter of French votes skewed left of Macron’s liberals to the socialist-left New Popular Front.

Like Scholz, dissatisfaction with Macron’s leadership and government played a significant role in this reversal of fortunes for the once-dominant Ensemble coalition, with the growth of parties to both the left and right of the President’s liberal allies.

As of September, Macron’s favorability numbers hovered at just 30%. Dissatisfaction with the French leader grew to more than 67%.

In London, Labour trounced the Conservatives after more than a decade in power. Confidence in Labour remains low among the British public, but the shift underscores the immense dissatisfaction voters had with the Torries.

In Spain and Portugal, centre-right foes outdueled their rivals. Portugal’s Democratic alliance, led by PSD, edged out the Socialists in March’s snap election after a corruption scandal disbanded the PS-led government.

Spain’s Sánchez-led PSOE lost a tight vote to Partido Popular in the EU election, underscoring dissatisfaction with his regime. Our Euronews-Ipsos pan-European poll in March found that Sánchez suffered from a 54% negative opinion among Spanish voters.

Anti-establishment growth

It’s not just France’s National Rally or Germany’s BSW or AfD. Across Europe, several non-traditional hardline parties have experienced a strong growth in support in 2024.

Portugal’s far-right Chega became the third biggest party in Lisbon following the March election, winning nearly 20% of the vote.

In Spain, a new hard-right insurgent, SALF, emerged to stunningly capture three of Spain’s 61 MEP seats.

In Hungary, a new populist right-wing party led by Peter Magyar gobbled up historically leftist opposition votes to pose a new challenge to PM Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz.

Among Europe’s largest nations, only Poland’s Civic Platform, Romania’s left-right CNR coalition and Italy’s far-right Brothers of Italy represented government-leading parties that out-performed opposition forces in 2024 votes.

The issues and motivations for voters vary across Europe’s diverse regions, but one key factor has remained clear: voters across the continent have demanded change from their leaders.

The trend continues in Washington?

With change as the trend in Western democracies, Kamala Harris and America’s Democrats have reason to be concerned.

According to polling average models built by Washington’s Real Clear Politics, 61% of American voters believe the country to be headed in the wrong direction, compared to just 28% of Americans that believe the country is headed in the right direction.

President Joe Biden’s approval numbers are also of concern for Democrats. RCP’s rating shows Biden with just 41% approval among voters, compared to 56% disapproval.

At this point in their respective terms as President of the United States, Trump (44.2%), Obama (49.7%), and Bush (50.5%) were all viewed more positively than Biden. Of those, only Trump lost his re-election bid.

American voters are drawing on the connection between Biden and the wrong direction of the country. In a newly released October nationwide poll conducted by NBC News, only 25% of voters believed Biden’s policies were helping American families. In contrast, 45% felt Biden’s policies had a negative impact, hurting their families.

As sitting vice president, Harris and her aides are aware of how those negatives could impact her campaign and have worked overtime to try and flip the narrative.

In the run-up to the 10 September debate, the Harris campaign pushed a future-focused slogan, emphasising that America “shouldn’t go backwards”.

During the September debate between Trump and Harris, which many pundits believe Harris emerged the debate winner, the VP did a tremendous job of putting the former President on the defensive.

In many cases, Trump came off as the incumbent, left to defend his four-year-old record. Trump failed to convincingly reinforce the message that it is Harris who has been in power with Biden for the past four years.

In September, many polls showed the Harris message working. NBC News’ September poll showed Harris with a 9-point advantage over Trump in “Representing Change”. These figures corresponded with Harris’s largest lead of the campaign cycle.

Since the debate, the Trump campaign and the Republicans have worked hard to pin Harris more closely to her unfavourable boss.

Per NBC’s October poll, the Trump campaign’s messaging efforts may be paying off. Harris now holds just a 5-point advantage over Trump in the “Representing Change” category.

Like Europe, American voters are increasingly displeased with Washington on a host of topics, from cost-of-living and immigration to abortion and democratic norms.

While many of these issues are driving voters to polling places this November, the all-encompassing narrative of “change” holds an outsized influence this election cycle. The winner will likely be the candidate that voters believe most strongly represents real change, inspiring hope for a better future.

If Europe’s 2024 elections serve as a guide for America’s next vote, the side that can best convince voters they most represent change could serve as the deciding factor in November.

While Trump is currently the outsider and challenger, Harris and her team have done well to make the VP appear to be the candidate of change. However, with three long weeks remaining in the campaign cycle amid an ever-tightening race, the mantle of change is available to either candidate — as is the White House.

This is part one of a two-part series where Euronews explores the similarities between Europe and America’s 2024 elections. In part two, we will examine the shift in demographic trends and the specific issues that motivated Europe’s voters in 2024 to see how those trends compare to the US election in November.