Opta’s supercomputer has predicted who will win this season’s Europa League – and Manchester United are placed shockingly low in the rankings.
The stats boffins have been crunching the numbers ahead of this year’s new-look format and have spat out a comprehensive analysis of which teams are most likely to go all the way.
This season’s instalment will have a slightly different flavour to previous years, with the traditional group-stage format canned in favour of a league of 36 teams.
Each side will play eight fixtures – two more than before – against eight different teams, half at home and half away, to determine their position in the table.
The changes do not end there, however. This season is set to see the introduction of a brand new play-off phase, with the sides finishing ninth to 24th in the table to battle it out for a spot in the last 16 along with the top eight clubs.
Manchester United have not been deemed one of the favourites to win the Europa League
Opta have given Tottenham a higher chance of winning the competition than the Red Devils
The Europa League final will take place at the Estadio de San Mames in Bilbao on May 21, 2025
There’s also no more safety net for Champions League sides to drop down to UEFA’s secondary competition, which means we will have a new champion this year given Atalanta are in UEFA’s elite club competition this time round.
But it is not expected to be United, according to Opta. The supercomputer has them down in a lowly sixth position in their table of predictions, giving them a 7.1 per cent chance of taking home the trophy.
United, who kick-off their campaign at home to Dutch side FC Twente, could be described as the yo-yo club of European football as they return to the Europa League after a solitary campaign in the Champions League last season.
Their recent history in Europe’s second-tier tournament has been fairly strong. They made the final in 2021, only to be beaten by Villarreal, and won the competition in 2017 when managed by Jose Mourinho.
However, their chances of replicating those feats are deemed lower than Tottenham’s, who are the fourth favourites to reign victorious in the competition.
Ange Postecoglou’s side, who have not won a major trophy since 2008, have been handed a 8.6 per cent chance of winning the Europa League, and a 16.6 per cent probability of making it all the way to the final.
United’s only triumph in the Europa League came under Jose Mourinho during the 2016-17 campaign
Vitor Bruno is being backed by Opta to steer Porto to glory in his first season at the club
The supercomputer also believes Athletic Bilbao will make the final in their home stadium
The north London side have a relatively strong history in the competition, specifically the old format which was known as the ‘UEFA Cup’. They won the inaugural competition in 1972, before triumphing again 12 years later.
Nevertheless, this is Tottenham’s return to Europe after just one season away from UEFA competition. The last time they stepped foot in the Europa League was in 2020-21, when they made it to the round of 16 before being knocked out by Dinamo Zagreb.
The title of favourites for this year’s competition has not gone to a side from Europe’s top five leagues. In fact, Portuguese giants Porto are being regarded as the likeliest side to lift the Europa League trophy this season.
The Dragons, who are under new management after appointing Vitor Bruno in the summer, are believed to have a 17.8 per cent probability of reigning triumphant in Bilbao next May.
Their likeliest rival hails from the city that will host the showcase in under eight months. Athletic Bilbao were the Bridesmaids in Bucharest 12 years ago and Opta are predicting that they will be once again, but in their own stadium this time.
Rangers have only been given a 26.4 per cent probability of making it out of the league phase
Slavia Prague and Roma are also being backed to go further in the competition than Manchester United, while Real Sociedad have only been given an 8.3 per cent chance of reaching the final in their home of the Basque Country.
The third and final British side in the Europa League are Rangers, who reached the final in 2022, only for it to end in agony as they were beaten by Eintracht Frankfurt in Seville.
The Gers have been given next to no chance of repeating that feat, though, let alone winning it. They are only being given a 26.4 per cent probability of making it past the league stage.
