Will BYD take over Europe’s struggling EV market?

Posted by Admin December 18, 2024 World

European EV makers have a problem—most of the electric cars they make are expensive. This hasn’t been a problemin countries like Norway, with its strong government incentives to switch to EVs. But in other areas, this has left them vulnerable to cheaper imported options, particularly from China. One of the major Chinese brands angling to take advantage is BYD. With more revenue than Tesla in Q3 of 2024, BYD is growing fast and is on the top of the agenda for European leaders. Could BYD be on target to dominate the European EV market?

In typical Chinese brand fashion, BYD stands for “Build Your Dreams”. You can see this emblazoned on some of the company’s cars, but wisely many simply have the letter initials. Although BYD only started selling cars in Europe in late 2022, the company already offers a wide range of models, from the affordable compact Dolphin to the Atto 3 family EV, the Tesla Model 3-like Seal sedan, and the Tang SUV. In 2023, this only gave BYD 1.1% of the European EV market, but this is expected to increase to 5% in 2025.

This growth looks like a slow road toward dominance, but European carmakers have a lot to worry about from BYD. The company is now third in the world by market cap, after Tesla and Toyota, and 11th in the world by revenue, just below Tesla and Stellantis. However, according to RBC Capital Markets lead equity analyst, Tom Narayan, BYD can produce cars around 40% cheaper than European automaking giants like Stellantis, thanks to vertical integration and the fact BYD makes three-quarters of its components itself, including EV batteries.

The company [BYD] is now third in the world by market cap, after Tesla and Toyota, and 11th in the world by revenue, just below Tesla and Stellantis.

BYD is already the second biggest EV battery maker by share, after CATL, with 15.8% of the market. BYD is also the biggest global seller of plug-in EVs (including all-electric and plug-in hybrids). In August 2024, the company sold 355,174 vehicles, giving it 24.2% of the market, compared to Tesla’s 152,140 sales and 10.4%. Factoring in hybrids, in 2023, it was the world’s biggest seller of “new energy vehicles”, shipping over 3 million units.

One of the first European markets to truly embrace Chinese-made EVs is Norway, with 11% of its electric car sales being from the likes of Volvo, MG, NIO and BYD so far this year. BYD is already up to 3% of the U.K. EV market, having only launched passenger electric vehicles in the country in March 2023. It’s not the only Chinese EV brand making headway in Britain, either. MG is at 5% of the UK market, while Volvo and Polestar (both part of another Chinese giant, Geely) make up 3% and 2% respectively. So the total share of Chinese EV sales in the UK is now surpassing 13%.

The U.K. has its own problems for incumbent European automakers, too. Although all the focus has been on the pledge to phase out the sale of new cars with internal combustion engines by 2030 and hybrids by 2035, there are quotas already in effect, thanks to the zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) Mandate. For 2024, in the UK, 22% of an automaker’s car sales must be ZEVs, and in 2025 this will rise to 28%. As the figures stood in November, many incumbent manufacturers were facing fines for not hitting the targets, including Volkswagen and all of Stellantis’s brands except Jeep and Abarth. Mercedes was scraping through, and only BMW was healthily ahead of the necessary benchmark.

One of the first European markets to truly embrace Chinese-made EVs is Norway.

The EU doesn’t have these staged targets like the U.K., but still wants all cars sold by 2035 to have zero emissions. So far, few European brands are on track to hit that target. In the U.K., automakers are having to discount their BEVs to improve sales and restrict supply of internal combustion vehicles, to rebalance their ratio. The Chinese bands don’t have this problem. Almost 100% of BYD’s sales were BEVs in the U.K. in 2024.

The spanner in the works could be tariffs. In October, EU tariffs of up to 45.3% on Chinese imported EVs came into force. This made another Chinese EV maker, Omoda, put its EU launch on hold, although the brand is already on sale in the UK. Geely’s Lynk & Co, after launching its first all-electric car this year in the EU, is putting the emphasis back onto a refresh of its initial hybrid 01 model. It’s notable that Norway isn’t in the EU, so doesn’t have to impose EU Chinese EV tariffs, and post-Brexit U.K. may not do so either.

BYD is taking a bullish approach and facing the potential EU challenges head-on. A year ago, the company announced it would be building a factory in Hungary, making it the first major Chinese automaker to create a production hub in Europe. In May, it was reported that BYD was considering constructing a second assembly location for Europe in 2025. According to BYD’s European managing director Michael Shu, this will be building a low-cost EV based on the Seagull, a car available for under $10,000 in China.

This will take on European electric “superminis” such as the Dacia Spring, Citroen e-C3 and Volkswagen ID.2. Although the Seagull is likely to cost twice what it does in China when it reaches Europe, it’s still going to pose a significant challenge to these European models. It will probably undercut them all in price without any deficit in quality, just as BYD’s other models so far have. While Europe can protect itself from cars directly imported from China with tariffs, BYD will potentially be manufacturing the Seagull in Europe, so won’t be liable for import tax.

For the U.S. market, BYD has been building electric buses locally in Lancaster, California since 2013. The company had announced plans in May 2024 to build a car plant in Mexico, with a capacity for up to 150,000 cars per year, growing to half a million. However, Trump’s election win and his threatened 25% tariff on Mexico could have dampened BYD’s enthusiasm for this approach to the U.S. EV market, although BMW has also put its eggs in the Mexican basket for producing its next EV generation for the Americas. However, BYD’s Mexican plant is aimed primarily at the Mexican market, and with Mexico’s wide range of trade deals, it could supply many other parts of the world, too.

While tariffs could protect the U.S. and Europe from the Chinese EV onslaught from the likes of BYD, it’s likely to be a temporary respite. Countries without a local automaking industry to protect will continue to enjoy the benefits of cheap Chinese cars, including electric models, challenging European brands. The ability of Chinese automakers, and BYD in particular, to produce quality EVs at a lower price than European (and American) competitors poses a disruptive, potentially existential threat. They will need to respond, and fast, if they want to survive.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com