Belgian Health Minister Frank Vandenbroucke was popular with the anti-smoking lobby for his vocal criticism of the industry, and had positioned himself as an EU health leader, pushing successfully for bloc-wide action to overcome shortages of critical medicines.

But his country was one of the few to listen to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s plea for gender parity, opting to nominate a female candidate (while Vandenbroucke’s team privately insisted he wanted to stay in national politics).

Malta’s former Health Minister Chris Fearne was also expected to be a shoo-in for the job, given he’s a respected figure for his work on antimicrobial resistance and was popular with other ministers. 

His EU nomination was rescinded earlier this year, however, when he became embroiled in a national hospital fraud scandal.

Among the rest, some have pointed to the Cypriot pick, Costas Kadis, largely because he spent eight months as health minister back in 2007, and due to his background as an environmental scientist. But Kadis wants the Mediterranean job.

EPHA suggested Croatian nominee Dubravka Šuica could be an “especially promising” candidate if she also kept her position as a prominent Commission vice president. But that’s because she would be in a more senior role in the Commission, working more closely with von der Leyen, as opposed to having any health experience.