Despite many complexities, one thing has been clear in recent years; the main ruling powers in Europe, most menacingly its strongest, Germany, have shown a greed, indeed a craving, for military adventurism, for spending ever more euro-billions on armaments, air power, and naval maneuvers Baltic outposts.

The militarism continues a policy of eastward expansion, with one declared enemy, Russia, whose ruler is denounced, derided, and demonized daily in most of the media. Hardly a page or newscast fails to warn that Russia, if it wins out in the Ukraine, is an awful threat not only to Poland, the Baltic countries, all its neighbors but even to “our Germany.” Without a common border, Germany seems, nevertheless, to want to feel equally threatened.

The result: calls for a new military draft, even for women, for air-raid shelters, school air-raid drills and for strengthened bridges and highways leading, of course, eastwards. Almost audible is the hand-rubbing and heel-clicking among the generals, nationalists, and imperialists generally.

Hardly less audible; the clinking of champagne glasses at offices of armament firms like Rheinmetall, which are already raking in armament billions like never before, all paid for with money stolen from the living standards of most German and European civilians. And they want more!

This “readiness for war” demanded by Germany’s bloodthirsty Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and backed by the equally belligerent Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (whose declared aim is to “ruin Russia”) was carried out under the aegis of the USA, the great protector of “rule-based international order,” democracy and anti-authoritarianism (also called anti-totalitarianism).

Therefore: weapons for Zelensky including, bigger, stronger, further-reaching missiles. The Ukrainians must be aided until all territories are regained or all Ukrainians are dead. And Washington demanded 2% more of the European domestic budgets, then 3.5%, maybe 5%.

Then suddenly an unloved vice-president and even more repugnant Secretary of Defense came to Europe with the news that Trump had telephoned with Putin and the two were planning to negotiate on peace in the Ukraine. The greatest danger to Europe, they were told, was not Russia, not China, but the “danger from within.”

The shock was visible in the faces of the European leaders in Munich. What? Peace? Has the USA gone completely off its rocker? How can we now justify our build-up? Our strategies? Our maneuvers?

To make matters worse, Vance not only threatened with peace, but criticized the European countries for repressing oppositional ideas. True, the object of his concern and support was the fascistic Alternative for Germany (AfD), with whom Musk has become so chummy. (For its own reasons, the AfD also supports a swift end to the Ukraine war. Though Musk chose a nasty object for his affection (and open intervention in a foreign election campaign), it is true that many German leaders do want to get the AfD verboten – not because of its antagonism toward all “foreigners,” which they increasingly echo, but because it is polling in second place, at about 20%.

There is indeed increasing repression of dissent in Germany and Europe. It is directed not so much at the fascists, however, as it is against any against any criticism of Netanyahu’s Israel and its fearful annihilation in Gaza, killing up to a hundred thousand Palestinians.

No, Vance wasn’t against that! But thus far mention of any form of repression in “our freedom-loving Germany” has been mostly leftist, hence taboo. But now suddenly from our Big Brother, the United States!

Hastened to counter-attack

Of course, they hastened to shape up a counter-attack! In Paris the worried leaders of Europe sought ways to put a spoke in the peace wheel, necessary if they are to justify their continues militarism. “No negotiations without us!” they cried. “We must also be involved! Oh yes, with Zelensky too of course!, they recalled.

But if, despite their efforts, Trump and Putin find agreement, then the leaders say “we must go it alone” in the effort to continue the military buildup. Unified European armed forces, headed by Germany (plus a jealous but currently troubled France) must hoist the banners, train the troops, build more tanks and planes and conduct more borderline maneuvers. And perhaps some day we can join our calloused hands with the USA again, and with Israel, in killing Palestinians and opposing China.

This development calls for a difficult and complicated complicated struggle for progressives and leftists in the USA. Of course, without question, they must fight back with all their might against Trump’s (and Musk’s) horrific measures – repressive (at home), racist, anti-refugee, anti-women, anti-queer, above all anti-union and anti-democratic. This they are doing at heroic levels.

Yes, Trump’s foreign policy is appalling on Gaza, frightful on Iran and Latin America, unclear but worrisome on China. But I hope true progressives do not join those bellicose liberals, many of the Democrats, who may or may not swallow or ignore those sins but whose opposition to Trump inexorably includes attacks on his moves toward detente with Russia and willingness to negotiate on Ukraine. Peace and joint armament limitations, especially nuclear armaments, are decisive matters of world survival!

These issues have become part of the German election scene which culminates with the voting on Sunday. The “Christian Union” is polling well ahead, with 30%, thus assuring wealthy, reactionary Blackrock lobbyist Friedrich Merz the job as chancellor.

But he needs a junior partner. The Social Democrats and the Greens are polling in third and fourth place; which will Merz prefer? Except for a small number of reluctant Social Democrats, all three favor militarization and war preparations. And all three were completely confused by tough criticism – not from the left, which they always disregarded – but by words and deeds from their hitherto guiding patron on the Potomac. All three parties now want the German eagle to ignore Trump and lead the flock in pushing war preparation.

A major irritation is the strength of the Alternative for Germany, nationalist, militarist, racist and misogynist, strongly pro-Netanyahu but strangely favoring Ukrainian peace. It is led by the clever, well-spoken Alice Weidel, who has become friendly with Elon Musk and evidently JD Vance as well. The AfD has become a scapegoat or “whipping boy” for the major parties, thus distracting genuine, systematic opposition to their militarism ans war plans. But AfD policies are increasingly copied by major parties and the “fire-wall” taboo against it is crumbling.

And on the left? Unfortunately split, now with two main contenders, both have raced to reach the 5% line of Bundestag survival. The Linke, the Left Party, basically for peace but still divided between “reformers” and militant fighters on opposition or grudging acceptance of NATO and even on Israel criticism, now seems to be reviving the militant positions and actions it had largely neglected in past years. It stresses rent pricing and housing, while placing foreign policy in the background, at least for now.

Almost amazingly, within months, even weeks, it soared from a static 4% to poll results of 6%, 7%, today 9%  (and in the youth-based TikTok poll an amazing first-place, 20%). It has won thousands of new members, mostly young (especially female) and seems very safe in the elections.

The break-away Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, on the other hand, while most vigorously in favor of Ukrainian peace moves, is still basically anti-immigrant,  with the Christians and the AfD, and seems closer to middle-class interests than to working class militancy. It is now teetering just under that crucial 5% level. With its purposely small, select membership and only rudimentary structures on state or county levels, it has hardly a chance for the three district victories which would save it from Bundestag extinction.  Its big swoop upwards last September in eastern Germany is almost forgotten.

It would be good, I think, if both survive – and perhaps some day even join together again. Despite all hopes of success in Trump-Putin peace endeavors the marching tread of German boots in Europe has grown much louder and the new government to be formed this spring will certainly take Germany even further to the right. Above all it is necessary to have more anti-war leftists in parliaments and, even more important, with more anti-billionaire strikes and peace demonstrations supporting and encouraging them in the streets and plazas. Any such success in strong, central Germany would assist similar progress all around Europe!

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