The European football circuit is now underway with a plethora of Champions League match-ups being played out last week – but now it’s time for the continent’s second tier competition, the Europa League, to get underway.

A plethora of elite-level clubs – including Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur and AS Roma – have all qualified for the competition this season, which should set the tournament up to be one full to the brim with excitement, tension and all-timer displays.

Ahead of the competition getting underway, Opta have simulated, using their supercomputer, the 2024/25 competition 10,000 times to churn out their predictions for whom – out of the competing teams – is most likely to become the winners of this campaign’s instalment. Ranked in order, they can be found below.

32-21 – Ludogrets, Ferencvaros, Dynamo Kyiv, Malmo, AZ Alkmaar, Rangers, Ajax, Qarabag, Twente, Anderlecht, Bodo / Glimt, Midtjylland

Ludogrets and Ferencavos and Dynamo Kyiv have all been given a minimal chance – 0.1%, to be precise – to add the Europa League to their respective trophy cabinets, whereas Malmo, AZ Alkmaar, Rangers – whose 2022/23 side is considered one of the worst teams in Champions League history – and the like are not much more favourable with a 0.2% chance.

Interestingly, given their stature on the European stage, Ajax are not favoured also. Given just a 2.7% chance of reaching the semi-final stage, the Amsterdam-based side will be keen to enjoy a deep run into the competition’s latter stages.

Anderlecht, Bodo / Glimt and FC Twente, who are set to play Manchester United in their 20242/25 Europa League opener, finish off a collection of sides who, statistically, have next to no chance of reaching the final in May.

20-11 – Union Saint-Gilloise, Viktoria Plzen, Hoffenheim, Olympiakos, Maccabi Tel Aviv, PAOK, Lyon, Braga, Nice, Fenerbahce

Union Saint-Gilloise kick off the top 20 with a 0.8% chance and are quickly followed up by Pilsen-based Viktoria Plzen – 0.9% – who face the competition’s 2021/22 winners, Eintracht Frankfurt, on their first match day.

Hoffenheim, flying the Bundesliga flag, have been given a chance of 1.1% of winning the lot, while Olympiakos are not much better off (0.2%). PAOK, Lyon and Braga follow with a 1.2%, 1.4% and 1.7% chance respectively.

Jose Mourinho could become the first manager to win the competition with a trio of different clubs if he manages to go all the way with Fenerbahce. That said, Opta’s calculations give the Portuguese icon, widely regarded as one of Chelsea’s greatest ever managers, just a 3.1% chance of doing so.

10-6 – Eintracht Frankfurt, Real Sociedad, Galatasaray, Lazio, Manchester United

Eintracht Frankfurt and Real Sociedad have both been given a 3.6% chance of winning the competition, with the latter being slightly favoured to reach the final in May 2025 (7.4% vs 8/3%). Elsewhere, Okan Buruk-led Galatasaray have a chance to unsettle the pack.

The Turkish outfit have been given a 5.2% of becoming the winners after flattering to deceive in recent years, but now boast the talismanic nature of Victor Osimhen. Italian outfit Lazio, too, have struggled to emerge from the group stage in previous iterations of the competition – but have been calculated a 12.3% possibility of reaching the final and a 6.1% chance of becoming champions.

Interestingly, Erik ten Hag’s Manchester United, who are still without Luke Shaw going into the competition, don’t make the top five. Albeit in a spot of bother at the moment, the Red Devils’ experience in European competitions could see them thrive in the Europa League this term.

5 AS Roma

Chance of winning: 8.2%

AS Roma have enjoyed a lot of success in the Europa League in recent seasons, as in both 2020/21 and 2023/24, they reached the semi-finals. The campaign sandwiched in between – 2022/23 – is when they reached the promised land, eventually being defeated by Sevilla 4-1 on penalties.

This time around and they have a promising chance of reaching, yet another, final. Opta have given I Giallorossi a 27% chance of reaching the final, 15.1% chance of reaching the final and an 8.2% chance of finally getting their hands on the trophy after coming so close in recent years. Can Ivan Juric, during his first season at the club, manage it?

4 Tottenham Hotspur

Chance of winning: 8.6%

Ange Postecoglou has had a mixed bag of results at the helm of the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium since his arrival but has continuously suggested that he always wins silverware in his second season – and the Europa League could be the perfect opportunity to prove the doubters wrong.

Per Opta’s calculations, the Greek-Australian boss has been given an 8.6% chance of winning the showpiece. The north Londoners have long been teased by rivals fans for their lack of silverware in recent times, but given they have a 16.6% chance of reaching the final, it could be the end of a long and drawn-out stint without trophies.

3 Slavia Prague

Chance of winning: 9.6%

While their city counterparts, Sparta Prague, are rubbing shoulders with the continent’s very best in the Champions League, Slavia Prague will be – according to Opta’s data – be giving the likes of Roma and Tottenham a run for their money this term. They have reached the group stage of a European competition every term since 2017/18.

Ranked as third favourites to reign victorious in mid-2025, the Czech juggernauts have their expertise in Europe to thank for their favourable percentages. Remarkably, they have been backed with a 9.6% chance of winning the lot, while their chances of going toe-to-toe in the final sit at 17.9%.

2 Athletic Club

Chance of winning: 10.9%

While perennial winners of the competition, Sevilla, are typically the Spain-based front-runners for the competition, Athletic Club are taking the mantle this season given the former’s 14th place finish in La Liga last time out. Interestingly, they are labelled as one of the favourites.

Ernesto Valverde and his entourage will be hoping to run deep into the competition’s latter stages in 2024/25, and they have been given a 10.9% chance, by Opta, of going all the way. Their chances of reaching the final stand at just shy of 20% – 19.8% – while their chances of securing passage into the last 16 is the second biggest of all the teams (83%).

1 Porto

Chance of winning: 17.8%

Perhaps surprisingly, Liga Portugal outfit Porto, who are managed by Vitor Bruno, have been earmarked as the leading candidate to win this season’s Europa League with Opta giving them a 17.8% of reigning triumphant in Bilbao. The Dragons are two-time winners – in 2003, known as the UEFA Cup then, and 2011 – but will be hoping to add another to their cabinet in May.

In fact, they’ve been given the highest percentage of all 36 teams to secure passage into the last 16, quarter-finals, semi-finals and the final, proving their front-runner status as the 2024/25 instalment of Europe’s second-tier competition kicks off.

All statistics per Opta – correct as of 25/09/24.