Surprise Group E winners Romania have been handed a brutal reward for their upset finish, matched up against the Netherlands in the Euro 2024 Round of 16 on Tuesday in Munich.

The 47th-ranked Tricolorii beat Belgium, Slovakia and Ukraine to the summit of their four-team group, but that exceptional achievement resulted in the disservice of drawing the seventh-ranked Dutch, who disappointingly finished third in Group D behind Austria and France.

The Netherlands are hoping to prove they’re worthy of being included in the very upper echelon of European football once again, unable to break into the conversation of Euro or World Cup title contenders. They hold the record for most World Cup appearances without winning a title, and have just one European Championship from back in 1988.

Just one group-stage victory amidst four points won’t help that cause, but the Oranje now have a fresh start in the knockout stage to put together a run through the bracket.

Romania vs. Netherlands prediction, odds

• Moneyline lean: Netherlands (-225)
• Score prediction: Romania 0-2 Netherlands

The Dutch were uncharacteristically leaky at the back through the group stage on the whole, but that doesn’t quite tell the whole story. They were in control for most of the game against Poland, kept a lid on France and were unlucky in defeat to Austria, conceding just 0.87 xG but coughing up two goals plus an own goal.

It’s hard to make an argument that the Netherlands are title contenders, but they won’t have too much trouble in this game.

Romania vs. Netherlands match facts

• Date: Tuesday, Jul. 2, 2024
• Kickoff Time: 6 p.m. local (12 p.m. ET / 9 a.m. PT)
• Location: Allianz Arena (Munich, Germany)
• Referee: Felix Zwayer (GER)
• Last meeting: Romania 0-3 Netherlands (Nov. 14, 2017 | International Friendly)

Romania vs. Netherlands best bet

• Pick: Netherlands 17+ shots
• Odds: +105 (FanDuel)

The Dutch aren’t always shot merchants, but against a clearly inferior side, this will be a chance for them to rack up a high total, which they’ve proven capable of on their day.

Against Poland, the Netherlands racked up 21 shots, putting just four on target in a victory. They were stymied by Austria, but Romania should provide another chance to pepper the goal.

Romania conceded 13 shots to Ukraine and Slovakia plus 20 to Belgium in group-stage action, so they’ve been battered by lesser teams than the Dutch already.

Romania vs. Netherlands prop bet

• Pick: Under 2.5 goals
• Odds: -105 (BetMGM)

No matter who’s playing, unders have been king at Euro 2024. Only one of the first six Round of 16 matches went over 2.5 goals, not including the England vs. Slovakia game which officially resulted in a 1-1 draw for betting purposes. Prior to that, 12 of the last 15 group games finished under the total as well.

Teams are getting shots off, but nobody seems capable of scoring. Euro 2024 is averaging around 2.3 goals per game so far, a number which itself is skewed by the first five games of the competition all going over. Of those 90+ goals, an incredible eight of them have been own goals. The mark from the last Euros was 11 and we are not even past the Round of 16.

At this point, if the under is anywhere near even money, it’s a valuable play, as long as neither Spain or Germany are part of the contest.

Romania vs. Netherlands live stream, TV channel

This Euro 2024 Round of 16 match will be televised in the United States on FS1, which can be streamed on Fubo, who are offering a FREE trial for new users. A Spanish-language broadcast is available via streaming service ViX.

In Canada, this game will be shown across TSN channels, with a French-language broadcast available on TVA Sports.

In the UK, Euro 2024 matches are split between ITV and the BBC. This match will be televised by the BBC, with streaming on their dedicated platform BBC iPlayer.

In India, Euro 2024 matches are available on Sony TEN with streaming on JioTV and SonyLIV.