Our betting expert has three Roma vs Bayer Leverkusen tips for Thursday’s Europa League semi-final, first leg at the Stadio Olimpico (kick-off, 8pm BST). Scroll down for the analysis behind his selections.

Roma vs Bayer Leverkusen betting tips

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Romans hard to conquer at home

Roma have been in a rich vein of form since club legend Daniele De Rossi replaced Jose Mourinho as head coach at the Stadio Olimpico, losing just three of his 20 matches in charge. They look a good bet to achieve some kind of positive result against the German champions.

The Italian club have high hopes of being in next season’s Champions League and fifth in Serie A would be enough to seal a place, as would winning this competition.

Having dumped out Serie A rivals Milan in the quarter-finals, they will be confident of stopping a Leverkusen side who remain unbeaten in all competitions this season. However, Xabi Alonso’s have needed last-minute equalisers in their three most recent matches to preserve that record.

That kind of fortune can only last so long and Roma should be backed at least to avoid defeat. The clubs have met six times, three of those matches ending all square, while their two meetings in last season’s Europa League produced just one goal in 180 minutes.

That went to Roma in the home fixture and another victory is not beyond them – but it is worth keeping the draw onside. 

Roma vs Bayer Leverkusen tip 1: Roma, draw no bet @ 31/20 with BetMGM

Close contest on cards

Leverkusen are warm favourites to win the competition, with Roma third in the betting behind compatriots Atalanta.

For Roma, heading to Germany next week empty-handed would be less than ideal, but their home form suggests they can take something positive out of this week’s clash.

They are unbeaten in their previous 11 home Europa League matches, 10 of which they have won, including that 1-0 win over Leverkusen last season.

A low-scoring home victory looks like the best bet. Roma have kept clean sheets against Brighton and Lazio on home soil recently and they could be the side to end Leverkusen’s mammoth unbeaten run.

Roma vs Bayer Leverkusen tip 2: Roma to win 1-0 @ 19/2 with BetMGM

Goals unlikely to flow in Rome

As mentioned, the previous two meetings between the sides finished 0-0 and 1-0, and a similar outcome could be on the cards on Thursday.

Backing one or both teams to fail to score is the first leg of our bet builder, while any goalmouth action could see lively forward Paulo Dybala have a crack at goal for Roma or Victor Boniface have an on-target effort the target for the visitors.

Another outcome worth considering as part of a chunky bet builder could be a match total of at least five cards being shown by referee Francois Letexier on Thursday. 

The previous two meetings have been spicy affairs, with totals of seven and eight cards shown in the previous two dust-ups, so five should be within reach this week.

Roma vs Bayer Leverkusen tip 3: Bet builder – One or both teams not to score, Paulo Dybala and Victor Boniface over 0.5 shots on target, over 4.5 total match cards @ 13/2 with BetMGM

Roma vs Bayer Leverkusen odds

Odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.