It is getting closer and closer between Tottenham, Newcastle, Chelsea and Manchester United as the race for European qualification looks set to go to the wire.

As ever, there are few certainties but plenty of variables at play as the season enters the final stages.

First, the certainties: Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool have qualified for the Champions League.

Aston Villa need three more points from their final two games to join them.

With Italy and Germany claiming the extra Champions League qualifying spots, only the top four in the Premier League will go into next season’s expanded Champions League.

Tottenham, in fifth, are seven points off Aston Villa with a game in hand. They need a couple of slip-ups from Unai Emery’s side – although Villa do have a tricky couple of remaining Premier League fixtures…

Aston Villa’s remaining fixtures

May 9: Olympiakos (A) – Europa Conference League semi-final second leg, kick-off 8pm

May 13: Liverpool (H) – Premier League, kick-off 8pm

May 19: Crystal Palace (A) – Premier League, kick-off 4pm

Should Spurs be looking at the Champions League or the Europa League?

Spurs will almost certainly need to take maximum points from their remaining games if they are to leapfrog Aston Villa (although two wins and a draw could do it with a big goal difference swing).

However, all of a sudden, not only do Tottenham’s hopes of qualifying for the Champions League look slim, but Spurs fans could be forgiven for fretting about qualifying for Europe full stop.

Three sides – Newcastle, Chelsea and Manchester United – have all closed to within six points of Tottenham following their late-season slump.

As it stands, Tottenham still need to win two of their remaining games to be sure of finishing in Europe.

Tottenham’s remaining fixtures

May 11: Burnley (H) – Premier League, kick-off 3pm

May 14: Man City (H) – Premier League, kick-off 8pm, live on Sky Sports

May 19: Sheffield United (A) – Premier League, kick-off 4pm

Who will qualify for the Europa League?

Fifth place in the Premier League will qualify for next season’s Europa League, with the team going directly into the new league phase, rather than needing to play any additional qualifying or play-off game.

However, there is a second Europa League spot available – and United could take that…

What happens if Man Utd win the FA Cup…and what happens if they don’t?

The winners of the FA Cup also take a place in the Europa League.

If the winners of the FA Cup, which will be either Manchester United or Manchester City, finish in the top five of the Premier League – and therefore qualify for the Champions League or Europa League through their league position – their Europa League spot for FA Cup glory will be passed down to the next-highest ranked Premier League side not competing in Europe.

With United currently in eighth position, it means that Chelsea – in seventh – would miss out on European football entirely for a second successive season were Erik ten Hag’s side to lift the FA Cup.

As it stands: Who qualifies for Europe if Man Utd win the FA Cup?

Champions League: Arsenal, Man City, Liverpool, Aston Villa

Europa League: Tottenham, Man Utd (as FA Cup winners)

UEFA Conference League: Newcastle

As it stands: Who qualifies for Europe if Man Utd DON’T win the FA Cup?

Champions League: Arsenal, Man City, Liverpool, Aston Villa

Europa League: Tottenham, Newcastle

UEFA Conference League: Chelsea

Man Utd’s remaining fixtures

May 12: Arsenal (H) – Premier League, kick-off 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports

May 15: Newcastle (H) – Premier League, kick-off 8pm, live on Sky Sports

May 19: Brighton (A) – Premier League, kick-off 4pm

May 25: Man City (N) – FA Cup final, kick-off 3pm

Newcastle’s remaining fixtures

May 11: Brighton (H) – Premier League, kick-off 3pm

May 15: Man Utd (A) – Premier League, kick-off 8pm, live on Sky Sports

May 19: Brentford (A) – Premier League, kick-off 4pm

Chelsea’s remaining fixtures

May 11: Nottingham Forest (A) – Premier League, kick-off 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports

May 15: Brighton (A) – Premier League, kick-off 7.45pm

May 19: Bournemouth (H) – Premier League, kick-off 4pm

What if Aston Villa win the Europa Conference League?

There would have been a bonus Europa League spot available if Aston Villa were to win the Europa Conference League and failed to finish in the Champions League or Europa League qualifying places. However, Villa have guaranteed a top-five finish and a place in the Europa League as a minimum.

But that bonus Europa League qualifying spot does not pass on to another Premier League team. So Villa’s success or failure in the Europa Conference League will not have an impact on European spots for Premier League sides next season.

How does the new Champions League format work?

Taking the total number of teams from 32 to 36 in the Champions League, the biggest change will see a transformation from the traditional group stage to a single league phase including all participating teams.

Every club will now be guaranteed a minimum of eight league-stage games against eight different opponents (four home games, four away) rather than the previous six matches against three teams, played on a home-and-away basis.

The top eight sides in the league will qualify automatically for the knockout stage, while the teams finishing in ninth to 24th place will compete in a two-legged play-off to secure their path to the last 16 of the competition.

Teams ranked 25-36 are eliminated from all competitions.

Europa League and Europa Conference League changing too?

Similar changes will be made to the Europa League and Europa Conference League formats, with 36 teams in each.

Teams in the Europa League will have eight matches against eight different opponents in the league phase.

In the Europa Conference League – renamed the UEFA Conference League – teams will have six matches against six different opponents in the league phase. The UEFA Conference League games will be played between September and December.

The knockout phase of the competitions will take place through the second half of the season and culminate at the end of the campaign, as they do now.

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