Welcome back to another edition of My Take 5, your weekly round-up of top international news. And what a week it has been. We are still reeling from the aftershocks of what transpired at the White House between President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Trump and his Vice-President JD Vance. What was supposed to be a normal press conference followed by some last-minute negotiations and the signing of a minerals pact that would see the US gain access to Ukraine’s mineral wealth in lieu of its support during the Russia-Ukraine war, devolved into an ugly shouting match with the Americans ganging up on their Ukrainian guest. The unprecedented scenes not only stunned people but also strained US-Ukraine strategic ties and sent Europe into a huddle. The ramifications have been global so, naturally, this week’s edition is dedicated to the dynamics of the Ukraine war. Let’s get to it.
The White House fiasco: In extraordinary scenes, President Zelenskyy found himself embroiled in an ugly spat with Trump and JD Vance in an Oval Office press meet. For most of the interaction, things appeared calm. But for the last 10 minutes, the conversation tail-spinned into the Americans hurling accusations against Zelenskyy and the latter firmly standing his ground. It all started when Vance ridiculously suggested that Zelenskyy had not been grateful for the support he had received from the US administration – a total lie, Zelenskyy has thanked Washington and the American people multiple times. It’s difficult to understand what triggered Vance. Just before his outburst, Zelenskyy was only pointing out that Putin doesn’t respect agreements and has broken many in the past. This is a fact. But Vance saw this as an opportunity to lay into Zelenskyy, telling the latter that he was having major problems in the war and was playing with the future of his country. When Zelenskyy pointed out that the US was perhaps missing the point about what Ukrainians were going through because America is geographically protected by oceans – again a fact – this was the signal for Trump to jump in and tell Zelenskyy that he was “gambling with World War III” and that “he had no cards”.
Zelenskyy stood his ground throughout the bullying tactics and respectfully, but firmly, countered his American hosts. But the rupture was done. There was no signing of the minerals pact and Zelenskyy soon left the White House. But after analysing the whole sequence of events, one gets the feeling that this was a set-up. Maybe Trump never really wanted to the sign the minerals deal – it did not promise immediate payback that he would have liked – and was only looking for an opportunity to scuttle the whole thing. He certainly did not want to give the security guarantees Zelenskyy was asking for to be part of the deal. In fact, from the moment Zelenskyy arrived at the White House, he was being mocked for not wearing a suit – a long-established ridiculous Trump jibe against Zelenskyy. The suit question was even brought up in the press conference. This shows that the potshots were designed to intentionally provoke Zelenskyy. The latter, however, remained composed and perhaps this is what riled his American hosts to fly into hysteria.
For the record, Zelenskyy wears combat fatigues to show solidarity with Ukrainian soldiers on the frontlines and the Ukrainian people – something that Trump will know nothing about. The spat now complicates things, and brings US aid for Ukraine under an unfortunate cloud. But fortunately, there are many Americans, including in the US Congress, who support Ukraine and want to continue aiding Kyiv in resisting Russian aggression. Hopefully, they will play a part in making the Trump administration see sense.
US halts military aid to Ukraine: Following the White House fiasco, Washington has now suspended all military aid to Ukraine. While a senior US official has said that this was only a temporary suspension, it couldn’t have come at a worse time. After the Trump-Zelenskyy spat, the suspension of aid creates the impression that Washington is arm-twisting Kyiv into surrendering. Plus, remember, this is aid that the Biden administration had already approved and the US Congress had already provided the money for. Therefore, this doesn’t come out of Trump administration’s budget. There are equipment, defence platforms and ammunition that are already on their way, waiting to be delivered to Ukraine via countries like Poland. All of this is now on hold.
Of course, this will impact Ukraine’s ability to defend itself. Especially critical is air defence ammunition to protect Ukrainian cities and civilian infrastructure. This is not the way to make peace. This is forcing the victim to surrender to the aggressor. JD Vance is still arguing that American commercial interests alone can provide sufficient security guarantees for Ukraine. This is not true. There were American companies in Ukraine before the full-scale invasion. Some even had offices in areas now occupied by Russia. Those offices were destroyed by Russian attacks. And the American companies left Ukraine when the full-blown conflict began. So a minerals deal that ties American commercial interests to Ukraine simply isn’t enough. It needs to be backed by real security guarantees – either a US or European military base in Ukraine, or a huge weapons package for Kyiv, or Nato membership. Zelenskyy emphasising on this point is logical.
Will Europe finally be proactive?: The EU has unveiled a ReArm Europe plan that seeks to unlock 800 billion euros for defence spending and support for Ukraine. This is a direct consequence of the US pausing military aid for Ukraine. The US may have jolted the Europeans into action and it’s high time that the continent assumes greater responsibility for its own security. With Trump in the White House, the US security umbrella over Europe is no longer a given. In fact, with Trump aligning his foreign policy with that of Russia, there is a clear signal that Washington sees European problems as just European problems. Therefore, there is no appreciation for the Russian expansionist threat in the Trump White House.
In a way, this is also good for Europe. Europe must step up and secure its own defences. It should be at the forefront of defending Ukraine from Russian aggression. Sure, it still needs a US backstop. But Europe should do all that it can do on its own. And with the US taking an America First approach under Trump, Europe should emerge as the beacon of liberal, globalist, humanitarian values, and back this up with real strength in security. Time for EU to loosen, if not cut, the umbilical cord with the US.
Von der Leyen in India: Part of Europe’s reorientation was witnessed last week when European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen landed in India to reinvigorate India-EU ties. The backdrop of the visit was unmistakable. With the US becoming increasingly nonchalant towards Europe’s security interests and about to hit the continent with tariffs, the EU clearly feels the need to diversify its friends-list. Von der Leyen’s New Delhi trip saw a promise to conclude a bilateral free trade agreement by the end of the year and a possible defence and security partnership in the near future.
This is indeed welcome for both India and EU. In a Trumpian world full of uncertainties, India-EU ties can be a force for stability. In fact, India would do well to start de-hyphenating the EU and US. This will also afford New Delhi strategic flexibility. Let’s recognise the fact that the Ukraine war and Trump 2.0 have, and is in the process of, radically changing the global order. Honing separate, independent strategic ties with Europe will be smart.
The Porcupine And The Tryzub: Finally, given the changing global order, it is important to identify the global strategic-security challenge of the times. European geopolitical strategist Velina Tchakarova has coined the term DragonBear to highlight the joint strategic challenge posed by China and Russia. There’s no denying that Beijing and Moscow have formed an unbreakable strategic compact today. Sure, the Trump administration has said that it wants to pry away Russia from China. This in fact is what is influencing the Trump administration’s approach to the Ukraine war and its warming of ties with Moscow. But this strategy won’t work. The support that China has given Russia during the past three years of the war – Beijing has essentially sustained Russia’s military-industrial base by exporting dual-use technology – has cemented Beijing-Moscow ties. Moscow can’t just leave this dynamic. It has no reason to either – Trump’s wooing will only put Russia in a better position within this equation. But that equation will sustain.
And now with North Korean soldiers fighting for Russia in the war, the Russia-China-North Korea partnership is sealed in blood. Trump is only fooling himself if he thinks he can break up this camp. But the way he treated Zelenskyy at the White House has certainly raised fears that the US can throw anyone, including its strategic allies, under the bus. In this context, Taiwan will certainly be worried. As I have written before, all this while the US has maintained a strategic ambiguity around defending Taiwan in the case of a Chinese invasion. That itself was thought sufficient by Washington to guarantee Taiwan’s security. But with Trump in charge, he can easily trade Taiwan’s security and independence for a grand deal with China.
That said, for some time now, there has been a debate about Taiwan’s defence doctrine. There is an opinion that Taiwan should completely focus on thwarting a Chinese amphibious invasion by preparing for guerilla warfare and asymmetric tactics against a numerically superior force. This strategy has been defined as turning Taiwan into a Porcupine to make a Chinese invasion unpalatable. We now hear echoes of this in the Ukraine case. Therefore, taken together, to counter the DragonBear joint challenge, democracies need to formulate a Porcupine-Tryzub strategy. Tryzub is the Ukrainian trident, which is part of its coat-of-arms. Essentially, Taiwan needs to be given the tools it needs to prevent a Chinese invasion, which would be the starting point of a wider Chinese offensive in East Asia. Similarly, Ukraine needs to be converted into a bulwark against Russian aggression in Europe. With Russia and China collaborating, democracies from East Asia to Europe via India must come together to strengthen the Porcupine-Tryzub defence.