European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has told the European Parliament she will focus on defence, security and climate policy if she is given a second term, ahead of a crunch vote in Strasbourg.

“Let us make the choice of strength,” she told the Parliament, promising a “European Democracy Shield”.

Ms von der Leyen, who has had the job of Commission president since 2019, will need 361 votes in the 720-seat Parliament to secure another five years in the job.

Support from her own centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), the Socialists & Democrats and the liberal Renew should give her enough votes.

There is no other candidate standing, but what makes the vote potentially tricky is that it is being held in secret – so MEPs can cast ballots without following their party line.

Ms von der Leyen attempted to address the concerns of each political group in a wide-ranging speech ahead of the vote, in which she made a series of policy pledges.

Reaching out to Green MEPs, she said she wanted the EU to stick to climate targets, and vowed that under her leadership the EU would introduce a 90% greenhouse gas emission-reduction target for 2040.

In a a nod to her own centre-right European People’s Party, she said she would launch common defence projects, including a European air shield. She also appeared to address right-wing concerns by promising to strengthen’s Europe’s borders by tripling the number of border guards.

There were also references to social rights, affordable housing and the need to end the “bloodshed in Gaza”, addressing the concerns of many MEPs on the left.

Ms von der Leyen elicited sustained applause when she condemned Hungary’s Viktor Orban for his recent trip to Moscow.

“This so-called peace mission was nothing but an appeasement mission,” she told MEPs, without naming the Hungarian leader.

She wrapped up her speech by calling for the Parliament to vote for her again: “History will keep knocking on Europe’s door, and the need for Europe will be stronger than ever.”

Whether the speech was successful in securing Ms von der Leyen a majority will become known later on Thursday.

The vote takes place at 13:00 (11:00 GMT), and the outcome will be announced two hours later.

European leaders officially nominated Ms von der Leyen at a summit in Brussels at the end of June.

The decision came despite resistance from Italy’s Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, who abstained from the vote after accusing fellow EU leaders of excluding parties like her own from the conversation.

If Ms von der Leyen does not pass today’s European Parliament vote, the EU will be back to square one, with leaders having to agree on a new candidate who would then need to be approved by the Parliament.

Although names have been floated, no obvious alternative candidate has emerged so far.

Ms von der Leyen won the job five years ago, when her name was put forward by EU leaders in a last-minute deal after a political stalemate over other contenders.

At the time, she was voted in with only nine votes over the required majority. Thursday’s vote might end up being just as close.

Since being nominated for a second term, Ms von der Leyen has held private meetings with some parliamentary groupings in an attempt to secure their votes.

Her attempts have not always been successful. After one such meeting, MEPs belonging to the Left grouping said they had decided not to vote for Ms von der Leyen due to her willingness to increase military and defence spending.

She also met with the Greens and received positive signals – although some MEPs said they would wait to hear Ms von der Leyen’s speech on Thursday before making a final decision.

She reportedly managed to convince some members of the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) to back her, although the Romanian, French and Polish delegations have said they would vote against her.

The Italian prime minister, who leads the ECR, is also said to be holding off on making a decision on how she will instruct her 24 Italian MEPs to vote until after Ms von der Leyen’s address.

However, according to Italian media she is leaning towards endorsing Ms von der Leyen in exchange for Italy being offered a senior job in the next Commission – such as the coveted economy or competition portfolios.

Ms Meloni, who heads the far-right Brothers of Italy party, has gained a prominent status among European right-wingers.

The third biggest group in Parliament, the newly formed Patriots for Europe, has refused to back Ms von der Leyen. Formed by Hungary’s Viktor Orban, it includes the leaders of far-right parties in France, Austria and the Netherlands.

Some hurdles might also arise from within the centrist parties that constitute the core of Ms von der Leyen’s support base.

Several centrist Irish MEPs have said they will vote against Ms von der Leyen’s nomination because of her stance on the war in Gaza. Some French MEPs belonging to Ms von der Leyen’s own EPP grouping have also said they won’t support her.