MYRNA BROWN, HOST: Coming up next on The World and Everything in It: Elections in Europe.

Next week, voters across the European Union will vote on who will make up the 720-member European Parliament and those lawmakers will decide who leads the 27-nation bloc.

MARY REICHARD, HOST: The EU has long leaned left on issues like climate change and gender ideology, but the upcoming elections could shift party power. What are the prospects for EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen?

BROWN: WORLD Radio’s Mary Muncy reports.

EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, URSULA VON DER LEYEN: I am ready to build a majority for a strong Europe because the center must hold.

MARY MUNCY: Last week, the European Parliament held its final round of presidential debates before voters head to the polls. Incumbent EU Commission president Ursula von der Leyen touted her accomplishments in climate policy and helping the continent through COVID-19, but then went on to defend an unpopular decision.

URSULA VON DER LEYEN: I have been working very well with Giorgia Meloni and the European Council as I do with all heads of state as is my task as president of the commission.

Many see Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni as a “far-right” leader.

Shortly after she was elected last year, Meloni helped push through a bill in Italy that makes surrogacy a crime that can be prosecuted even if it’s committed outside the country, and some saw the move as targeting LGBT people.

Some members of von der Leyen’s party say she’ll lose their support if she continues working closely with Meloni.

INTERVIEWER: Just to double check, Ms. Meloni’s policies on LGBTQI+, for example, don’t bother you?

VON DER LEYEN: I have a complete different approach.

Since EU parliamentarians select the EU Commission President, von der Leyen has good reason to court her party’s votes. But it seems she’s worried that won’t be enough, so she’s started courting what some see as a rising political contingent— the so-called far-right.

She’s walking a fine line, trying to keep her center-right party happy, and gain other votes, so she says she wants to deal with parties, not individual members.

VON DER LEYEN: I want to see where they group themselves and then we work with the groups that are clearly, clearly pro-European, pro-Ukraine, against Putin, and for the rule of law.

So how did von der Leyen win the presidency five years ago, and what is she willing to do to keep her post?

Until von der Leyen, the lead candidate of the party with the most seats in the European Parliament became commission president. But in 2019, members didn’t like the lead candidate. So they plucked German von der Leyen from political obscurity and sent her to one of Europe’s most powerful offices.

Right now, von der Leyen is part of the Christian Democrats—it’s the largest party in the majority center-right coalition, the European People’s Party, or EPP.

EVERT VAN VLASTUIN: She would defend herself very much against everything that is right wing.

Evert van Vlastuin is the chief editor at Christian Network Europe.

VAN VLASTUIN: Ursula von der Leyen is leading a group, the Christian Democrats, that has been one of the most pro-European Union, pro-Federalist movements in postwar European history.

But van Vlastuin says many expected the mother of seven to be much more conservative on social issues than she’s shown herself to be.

In 2021 the Hungarian Prime Minister proposed a bill that said children have a right not to be exposed to homosexuality, and von der Leyen blasted it as discrimination.

But since then, she has been outspoken in support of Israel and Ukraine’s right to defend themselves, though she is also calling for a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine.

VAN VLASTUIN: Many conservatives had high expectations, also Christians from other countries, but most of them, I think, are disappointed in what she really brought forward.

So why is she courting Meloni—someone viewed as far right?

VIVIEN SCHMIDT: The predictions are that the extremes in particular on the right, will come up to maybe 25 percent.

Vivien Schmidt is a professor emeritus of political science and international relations at Boston University and a visiting professor at European universities.

Since the parliament elects the commission president, von der Leyen would need a majority of parliament members’ votes to get reelected.

SCHMIDT: That could alter the balance in the coalition. I think from everything I’ve read, it looks like the centrist grand coalition would hold, but it would lose a large number of seats—still a majority, but not the kind of majority it was before.

One of the major sticking points between so-called centrist and far-right groups is their views on immigration.

SCHMIDT: Ever since the immigration crisis exploded in 2015, the commission has been negotiating with North Africa, Libya, among other places, to try to keep people in North Africa.

Right now, in addition to the Brothers of Italy Party, Meloni also leads the European Conservatives and Reformists party—and it’s calling for stronger border controls.

SCHMIDT: And the question becomes, at a moment when von der Leyen wants to be reelected commission president, how is her policy going to change? This is the question. And it appears as if she’s shifting rightward.

Some of von der Leyen’s biggest policy agendas as leader were COVID relief, shifting to green energy, and trying to lift people out of poverty. But Schmidt says the new commission may not be as focused on these goals and could go with a different candidate.

Schmidt says if the European Commission follows its normal procedure of appointing the leader, von der Leyen is a shoo-in.

SCHMIDT: But the member states already in 2019, in choosing her, demonstrated that they don’t necessarily want to follow that procedure.

So her appointment could be up to more political factors like whether other leadership positions are filled by Germans and whether she’ll be able to adapt to a changing EU.

SCHMIDT: My guess is that von der Leyen will be the next president. But my guess is also that this is going to be a different set of policies.

Reporting for WORLD, I’m Mary Muncy.

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