The Nato secretary general, Mark Rutte, has said that Vladimir Putin wants to “wipe Ukraine off the map” and could come after other parts of Europe next, as he urged Europeans to press their governments to increase defence spending.

“It is time to shift to a wartime mindset,” Rutte told security experts and analysts at the Carnegie Europe thinktank in Brussels.

He said people should gird themselves for the prospect that Russia might try to use “swarms of drones” in Europe as it has to deadly effect in Ukraine.

Putin “is trying to crush our freedom and way of life”, Rutte said. The former Dutch prime minister listed Russia’s attacks on Georgia in 2008, the annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014, and the all-out invasion of the country launched almost three years ago.

“How many more wake-up calls do we need? We should be profoundly concerned. I know I am,” he said. “Russia is preparing for long-term confrontation. With Ukraine, and with us.”

Rutte’s inaugural speech amid reports that Nato members are considering increasing defence spending to 3% of every member’s national budget – it is currently 2%.

Such a steep rise might help to placate the incoming US president, Donald Trump, who has consistently criticised European countries for relying too heavily on US cash to fund the alliance.

The speech on Thursday came just over two months after Rutte took office as Nato’s top civilian official. He has since toured the capitals of the 32 allies, including a visit to the US to meet with P Trump.

The UK prime minister has said he wants to increase Britain’s defence spending to 2.5% of GDP.

Nato has been a staunch backer of Ukraine and has helped most of its members funnel weapons, ammunition and other support into the country. But Trump’s return, and pledge to end the war quickly, has fuelled concern that an unfavourable truce might be forced on Kyiv.

Asked by the Associated Press how damaging a quick and shoddy peace agreement might be, Rutte said that “a bad deal means Putin coming out on top, and that will have worldwide ramifications, not only on Europe and Ukraine”. He insisted that Ukraine must be involved in any peace talks.

Trump routinely complains that US allies in Nato are not spending enough on defence. Rutte said Russia’s military spending was likely to amount to 7-8% of its GDP next year – far more than any Nato ally – while its defence industry churns out tanks, armoured vehicles and ammunition.

Putin also has the support of China, Iran and North Korea.

Rutte noted that defence spending has risen sharply in Europe, with 23 allies expected to reach Nato target of putting 2% of GDP into their military budgets. But he added: “I can tell you, we are going to need a lot more than 2%.”

Rutte listed a series of recent “hostile actions” by Russia against Nato allies, including cyber-attacks, assassinations, an explosion at a Czech ammunition depot, the jamming of radars in the Baltic region to disrupt air traffic, and the “weaponisation” of migrants to destabilise Europe.

“These attacks are not just isolated incidents. They are the result of a coordinated campaign to destabilise our societies and discourage us from supporting Ukraine,” he said. “They circumvent our deterrence and bring the front line to our front doors.”

Beyond increased defence spending in Europe, Rutte noted that Nato now has tens of thousands of troops on high readiness should they be needed to defend allied territory.

“With all this, our deterrence is good – for now. But it’s tomorrow I’m worried about,” he said, and warned that “we are not ready for what is coming our way in four to five years. Danger is moving towards us at full speed.”

“What is happening in Ukraine could happen here too, and regardless of the outcome of this war, we will not be safe in the future unless we are prepared to deal with danger,” Rutte added.

He appealed to governments to provide the defence industry with “the big orders and long-term contracts they need to rapidly produce more and better capabilities”. He urged the industry to boost production for defences against drones and other new war tactics.

He added that “freedom does not come for free” to the estimated 1 billion people living in the Euro-Atlantic area.

“If we don’t spend more together now to prevent war, we will pay a much, much, much higher price later to fight it. Not billions, but trillions of euros. That’s if we come out on top, and that’s if we win,” he said.