Munich, Germany – The shadow of 1938 hangs heavy over Munich.

Fearful of a renewed European war, world leaders appeased Hitler by agreeing to cede the Sudetenland. They did so just a stone’s throw from the Bayrischer Hof, which this weekend will host the Munich Security Conference.

The building known as Führerbäu, in which the Munich Agreement was signed, is a monument to the ability of diplomats to misread their adversary.

As they arrive in the Bavarian capital, history-conscious world leaders will be cognisant of how easily Europe’s security architecture can be brought to its knees. They will be sure to include it in their speaking points.

After US President Donald Trump stunned Western allies by setting up direct peace talks with Moscow, bypassing Ukraine and Europeans, Russian leader Vladimir Putin has moved closer to his goal – destabilising Europe and NATO – than he ever came to taking Kyiv.

While the two presidents held a 90-minute conversation on Wednesday, Trump’s Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, took Ukrainian accession to NATO – as well its ‘open door’ policy – and the prospect of US troops on the ground off the table before talks had even been publicly announced.

“Why are we giving Russia everything that they want even before the negotiations have been started?” EU’s foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas enquired when arriving at the NATO defence ministerial in Brussels the following day.

“Any quick fix is a dirty deal,” she said. “It will just simply not work.”

Hegseth and Trump have “deprived themselves of important levers they could have used in a future negotiation to push Russia into concessions,” Marie Dumoulin, Director of the European Council of Foreign Relation’s (ECFR) Wider Europe programme, told Euractiv.

Their approach is not wholly consistent with Trump’s rhetoric about ‘peace through strength’, but it is “not completely unexpected either,” Dumoulin said.

Unexpected or not, Europe’s contingent arrives in Munich braced for even higher-stakes diplomacy than they would have anticipated days ago.

If they can get facetime with the Americans, that is. Brussels and Kyiv have been sidelined in the US-Russian peace talks.

Trump has announced that he will probably meet Putin in Saudi Arabia soon, while China has been pushing to take a role as a mediator.

Ukraine’s sales pitch

Since the bombshell call with Putin, Trump has not called any European leader – except one.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was notified only afterwards, but at least he was notified. The message from Washington has been more than clear: for peace, Ukraine would have to cede the very territory that Russia had begun seizing back in 2014.

The US-Ukraine meeting planned for Friday, where Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio will lead the US delegation, is ambigious in its intent.

In many ways, a nightmare scenario for Ukraine is unfolding. The best case is that the US exerts gentle pressure on Zelenskyy – and the worst is that he is presented with some kind of fait accompli.

“I am hopeful that the results of that meeting will be positive. It is time to stop this ridiculous War, where there has been massive and totally unnecessary DEATH and DESTRUCTION. God bless the people of Russia and Ukraine!,” Trump posted on Truth Social confirming the talks.

Zelenskyy said before heading to Munich he wanted to hammer out a “plan to stop Putin” with the United States before any talks happen.

Ukraine, which insists it has been Europe’s shield from the East for eleven years, is desperately looking for points of leverage.

Kyiv is likely to appeal to Trump’s dealmaking urges, with promises of minerals, lucrative reconstruction contracts and guaranteed US arms purchases, if a settlement falls more in Ukraine’s favour.

They are also expected to insist that Zelenskyy’s peace formula – ceasefire, elections, negotiations, peace agreement and trade perks – is still the best option.

European scramble

European leaders and security officials, meanwhile, will likely to fight for facetime with Trump’s entourage – and the bipartisan Congressional delegation – over the weekend.

European diplomats told Euractiv they would use the Munich talks to seek out American counterparts in various constellations and try to hammer in their points when it comes to Ukraine. 

European foreign ministers are also expected to meet in a so-called Quint-format – including the United States, France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom – as well as in a G7 format, adding Japan and Canada.

Kallas is expected to meet with Rubio, as well as Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine/Russia, Keith Kellogg. European Council and Commission president’s encounter arrangements with the Americans are still in flux, people familiar with the talks said.

The stakes are clear for the European side: a carve-up of Ukraine and a potential lingering security threat that could escalate at any time if there is a bad deal.

But just demanding a seat at the negotiating table might not be enough to get Europe one. European leaders might question how far their efforts – and the responses of the likes of Vance, Rubio and Kellogg – would impact Trump’s decision-making.

And if Europe did get a seat at the Munich meeting, who would sit in it? German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who faces elections next weekend, is seen as a lame duck, while French President Emmanuel Macron won’t show up.

Scholz, whose country is hosting the conference, will not meet with Vance, German officials confirmed.

Nordic and Eastern European leaders are certain to try their best.

“All we need is peace. A JUST PEACE,” Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk wrote on X. “Ukraine, Europe and the United States should work on this together. TOGETHER.”

Moscow, meanwhile, who has been absent from the conference since its invasion but currently holds the upper hand on the battlefield, is likely to rejoice.

[OM]