Amid intense lobbying for top economic posts, the candidacy of the Czech minister for industry and trade appears to be gaining momentum, according to the people POLITICO spoke with, who were all granted anonymity to discuss the confidential talks. After being initially tipped for the (smaller) energy portfolio, thanks to his work negotiating Europe’s response to soaring energy prices, Síkela’s name is increasingly being linked to one of the Commission’s most important roles: trade.

The lineup of the next European Commission is still taking shape, with von der Leyen taking another week to consult with EU countries, her commissioners and others about the distribution of the top jobs.

Czech European Affairs Minister Martin Dvořák took to state TV over the weekend to say that Síkela, who hails from von der Leyen’s center-right European People’s Party, was tipped to be the next trade commissioner. 

“I confirm that this is the narrative or possibility at the moment,” Dvořák said on Sunday, adding that “the situation could still change.”

The French exception

The trade scenario could indeed still face opposition from France. 

Parachuting Síkela into the top energy job was a preferred outcome for Paris, given Prague’s pro-nuclear stance, according to two French officials. Sikela contrasts sharply with the current frontrunner for that post, Spain’s Teresa Ribera, who is known as a hard-line nuclear skeptic.