The painful impacts of the climate crisis and globalisation have left farmers in Europe marginalised and vulnerable to populist politicians, warn anti-racism campaigners and academics.

They argue that if the transition to a low-carbon economy is not properly funded, planned and equitable, it risks fuelling a resurgence of the far right across the continent.

In recent years, farmers in western Europe have fought with increasing ferocity against policies to protect the planet that they say cost them too much. From the Netherlands, where the backlash has been strongest, to Belgium, France, Spain, Ireland, Germany and the UK, protests have led to convoys of tractors clogging roads and ports, farmer-led occupations of capital cities and even cows being herded into the offices of government ministers.

These movements have been fuelled by the genuine grievances of farmers, who say that the burden of paying more for their pollution is a step too far, after an energy crisis and pandemic left many struggling to make ends meet. They say they feel overburdened by rules and undervalued by city dwellers, who eat the food they grow without any interest in where it came from.

Over the past few decades, the number of small farms across Europe has declined as conglomerates hoovered them up, while increased EU freedom of movement has led to a brain drain that has decimated rural communities.

As a result of these factors, farmers have receivedincreasing support from a range of far-right and populist groups, from the Alternative for Germany party(AfD) to the Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB) in the Netherlands. The European parliament elections in September led to a decided tilt to the right, with 25% of MEPs now from the hard right, the highest level ever recorded.

Nick Lowles, the chief executive of the UK anti-racist group Hope Not Hate, said: “What we have seen … should serve as a warning sign to the political classes – the necessary rapid transition to a low carbon, sustainable economy has to be properly funded, planned and equitable and not done at the expense of working people.”

Lowles, who works closely with anti-racist groups across the continent, said the stakes could hardly be higher with far-right and populists groups making big gains in the recent elections in the UK and Europe.

He said: “Our polling of 15,000 people across Europe shows people are fundamentally fed up with politics and politicians and do not trust that they are on their side. This makes it even more important that this transition [to a low carbon future] is done with people and for people and not something they feel is being imposed unfairly by a remote political class.”

According to the writer and academic Richard Seymour, whose latest book, Disaster Nationalism, examines how the far-right is capitalising on economic shocks and climate chaos, small farmers reeling from the blows of globalisation, a changing climate, and high energy prices is part of a wider trend.

Seymour said: “For farmers there’s all of this resentment requiring a target. But many of the things that are causing the harm – globalisation, capitalism, climate change – are abstract; you can’t take climate change to court, you can’t shoot globalisation … But conspiracy theories and far-right narratives allow you to identify some specific individuals or groups – cultural Marxists, globalists, Muslims – who are doing you down, that is the appeal.”

“Downwardly mobile” farmers – those that have seen their living standards and social standing decline during their lifetimes – are particularly susceptible, according to Seymour. “The toxic feeling of failure, the feeling of being buffeted by these global forces, the feeling you have been abandoned, betrayed, when you traditionally had some sort of status, that is a toxic mix and that is where the far right comes in.”

In the Netherlands the BBB, a rural conservative party established in 2019 which wants to restrict the power of the EU and rejects some of the environmental measures introduced by the Dutch government, now has two ministers in the national government. The Guardian repeatedly requested an interview with a representative of the party but no one was made available.

In Spain, where heatwaves and droughts have turned olive oil into the most stolen supermarket good, the far-right Vox have used the protests to justify their opposition to the European Green Deal – saying it threatens the viability of rural areas that are quickly hollowing out, while in Germany, AfD and groups with even more extreme and anti-democratic views have expressed support for farmers and for the protests. In France, the far-right National Rallyseized on the protests in a campaign against “punitive ecology” that scored them big wins in European elections but fell short of success in the snap national elections that followed.

In the UK, the campaign group No Farmers, No Food, which argues against net zero targets, was started and is being run not by a farmer but by James Melville, a GB News pundit and communications consultant. Melville retweeted a post from the former LBC host Maajid Nawaz that said: “Farmers stand between us and WEF’s desire for us to EAT BUGS, own nothing and be happy.” Melville also shared a post with a conspiracist claim that stated: “Between Bill Gates, the CCP & the WEF, we’re going to have no private farmland left. They want you eating bugs.”

Magid Magid, a former Green MEP and founder of Union of Justice, a group that campaigns for climate justice, said: “I fundamentally believe it’s a messaging issue, not an ideological one, when it comes to farmers”.

“Some of my former colleagues across the political spectrum have allowed the far right to frame climate action as elitist. Some of the biggest victims of the impacts of climate change will be farmers, and we need to frame our arguments to them in this manner.”

But scientists have warned that the debate has been mired in misinformation. The EU’s nature restoration law, which barely scraped through the legislative process, was heavily watered down in an attempt to appease farmers. An open letter signed by 6,000 scientists said opponents of the law “not only lack scientific evidence, but even contradict it”.

A separate analysis of disinformation on social media during the farmers’ protests, carried out by the nonprofit European Fact-checking Standard Network found that far-right political parties were behind 82% of the most popular posts undermining climate action.

Some farmers have voiced concern that their campaigns have been hijacked by populist groups. Geraint Davies, who farms in the Snowdonia national park in Wales said: “Most farmers understand that climate change is real but they see someone giving them the hope of ending every single policy that has been pushed towards agriculture – it’s such a dangerous ground to go down really.”

Davies said climate change had been affecting his farm “quite hard for the last four or five years which never used to happen”.

“Every year there is a different scenario regarding the weather we have to tackle. These groups have tried to push a different agenda into farmers to steer them away from producing sustainable food.”

Davies added that many farmers felt isolated and ignored by society making them easy targets for conspiracy theories and populist narratives. “Isolation is huge in farming and if someone gives you that glimmer of hope, telling you what you want to hear, you might think they are acting in your best interests, but actually it’s about self promotion for their own causes.” He said the answer was to “pay farmers fairly, and give them clarity and pride in the role they must play in a well-planned, well-regulated green transition”.

Lowles said it was crucial mainstream parties were aware of the threat and ensured the green transition was fair and properly planned and funded.

“If this warning is not heeded, we are in danger of seeing the continued rise of the far right in the coming years – with pretty grim consequences, not least the abandoning the climate agenda with all that entails for future generations.”