Gathered in the Golden Room of the Elysee Palace around a table with plates of mini-French pastries, European leaders grappled with the question — is the US still our ally?
It is a question that the French and British leaders will hope to answer after meeting separately with President Donald Trump in Washington this week.
There has been a shift in the trans-Atlantic partnership after a momentous week in diplomacy, in which US President Donald Trump sidelined Europe from talks to end the Ukraine war.
In an extraordinary social media post attacking the Ukrainian leader, Mr Trump summed up just how crucial the outcome of this war is to Europe.
“This War is far more important to Europe than it is to us — We have a big, beautiful Ocean as separation,” he wrote on Truth Social.
French President Emmanuel Macron scrambled to host a last-minute meeting in Paris with the continent’s biggest military powers, after leaders were caught off guard by Mr Trump’s phone call to Vladimir Putin to get a ceasefire deal underway.
European leaders fear that Trump will embolden Putin as he seeks a peace agreement in Ukraine. (Reuters: Piroschka van de Wouw)
Then came the first face-to-face discussions between the countries since the invasion began.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio sat down with Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at a shiny table in Saudi Arabia to discuss the war, without Ukraine or Europe.
This dramatic reset in relations between the US and Russia would have been very uncomfortable viewing for not only Kyiv, but for Europe.
“At stake is not just the future of Ukraine. It is an existential question for Europe as a whole,” British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said after leaving the crisis talks in Paris.
European leaders have been stunned by the speed at which America has moved as Mr Trump tries to deliver on his campaign promise to end the war, but for Europe it’s not just about Ukraine.
It is also about how these talks could undermine its security long term and the danger an emboldened Mr Putin poses to the rest of the continent.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy says he would be willing to step down as president if it meant Ukraine could join the NATO military alliance. (AP: Evgeniy Maloletka)
Senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Europe centre John Fleck said Europe being excluded from negotiations would be a disaster because it would bear the brunt of any bad deal.
“Forced capitulation of Ukraine to a Russian sphere of influence would likely spark another wave of refugees entering the EU, and Europe would also lose an important partner for critical mineral trade,” he said.
“Who would take Europe seriously on China if it cannot even have a role in the security of its own continent?”
When Mr Trump agreed to bilaterally negotiate on the war without Ukraine and Europe, it handed Moscow an enormous victory.
Mr Putin has been a pariah since his full-scale invasion of Ukraine nearly three-years ago, frozen out of all discussions, but now he has been brought in from the cold.
European leaders have accused the US of giving Russia territorial concessions before peace talks have even begun.
US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said it was “unrealistic” to expect Ukraine to return to its pre-2014 boundaries, before Russia took control of Crimea.
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It is exactly what Mr Putin wants, an end to the war on Russia’s terms and a chance to redraw the map of Europe to its advantage.
“There should be no decisions on Ukraine without Ukraine, and no decisions on the security of Europe without Europe,” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said this week.
Baltic countries and those bordering or near Russia are feeling particularly exposed to potential future Moscow aggression.
As Europe fights to prove it deserves a seat at the negotiating table, it is reeling from several gut punches from the new administration.
US Vice-President JD Vance essentially declared an ideological war on Europe at the Munich security conference last week, lambasting European politicians claiming they are suppressing free speech and losing control of immigration.
“The threat that I worry most about vis-a-vis Europe is not Russia, not China, it’s not any other external actor. What I worry about is the threat from within, the retreat of Europe from some of its most fundamental values,” he told a stone-faced audience.
The audience was expecting to hear about the new administration’s plans for the Ukraine war, instead he lectured European leaders that they had lost their way on democracy.
There is a new hostility from America towards Europe, and EU leaders may be questioning whether it can still rely on the trans-Atlantic partnership.
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There has been one political constant in a turbulent period for European leaders, that it really should increase its defence spending and become less reliant on the US.
America thinks Europe isn’t pulling its weight in NATO and European leaders have agreed to up the ante on military spending.
Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron are heading to Washington separately to meet Donald Trump. (Reuters: Gonzalo Fuentes)
Mr Hegseth said on Wednesday the US would “no longer tolerate an imbalanced relationship” with allies on Ukraine and Europe must provide the “overwhelming” share of funding for Ukraine.
Back in 2014, after Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea, NATO members agreed to spend 2 per cent of their GDP on defence.
At the time, only the US, UK and Greece were meeting that mark.
The NATO 2025 budget report reveals 23 countries are still not meeting that target, with the top 10 countries paying the lion’s share.
Denmark announced this week it would increase its defence spending to 3 per cent of GDP, citing fears of Russian rearmament.
“Does the world look uneasy? Yes. Is there reason to believe it will be over soon? No,” Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen told a press conference.
“There is one message for the chief of defence: Buy, buy, buy.”
While the US is Ukraine’s biggest military backer, Europe has supplied $US145 billion ($227.2 billion) in assistance to Ukraine.
And it is Europe that will need to oversee any ceasefire in the country, with the US already ruling out putting peacekeeping troops on the ground.
The UK has put its hand up and said it’s “ready and willing” to send soldiers to Ukraine to help guarantee its security as part of a peace deal.
The UK has said it’s “ready and willing” to send soldiers to Ukraine to help guarantee its security as part of a peace deal. (AP: Evgeniy Maloletka)
But it is an issue that has divided European leaders, with other countries less supportive.
A peacekeeping force could raise the risk of a direct confrontation with Russia and stretch European armies and budgets.
French President Emmanuel Macron met with Donald Trump on Monday, local time.
UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer will travel to Washington later this week as the pair try to bridge the growing divide between the US and EU.
But Europe may also need to start considering how it will protect itself, if the United States can no longer be relied upon to intervene.
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