US President Donald Trump’s peace plan for Ukraine has yet to be made public, but it is already abundantly clear that he expects Europe to play a far bigger role in the continent’s future security and the fight against Russian aggression. With the United States now looking to scale back its transatlantic commitments at a time when an openly revisionist Russia is embracing an expansionist agenda, European leaders must urgently adjust to the new geopolitical realities and prioritize security.

The Trump administration has moved rapidly to underline its expectations regarding an increased European role in the continent’s defense. Just days after his inauguration, Trump used an appearance at the World Economic Forum to reiterate his call for European NATO members to increase defense spending to five percent of GDP.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio then spoke at length on the return of a multipolar world and how this will shape future United States security policy toward Europe. “I do think, long term, there’s a conversation to be had about whether the United States needs to be at the front end of securing the continent or as a backstop to securing the continent,” he commented in a January 30 appearance on The Megyn Kelly Show.

Trump’s national security adviser Mike Waltz has also indicated that the United States expects Europe to take greater responsibility for preventing further Russian aggression against Ukraine and securing a viable peace. “An underlying principle here is that the Europeans have to own this conflict going forward,” he said on NBC’s Meet the Press. “President Trump is going to end it. And then in terms of security guarantees, that is squarely going to be with the Europeans.”

The starkest message so far has come from US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. “Safeguarding European security must be an imperative for European members of NATO,” he told a February 12 meeting of Ukraine’s Western allies in Brussels. “Europe must provide the overwhelming share of future lethal and non-lethal aid to Ukraine.”

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The new US administration is not the first to signal a strategic shift away from Europe. This process has actually been underway since the end of the Cold War, and has remained the long-term goal of policymakers in Washington DC despite Russia’s February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. While Trump’s messaging on the issue of European security has been characteristically direct, his position is actually very much in line with longstanding trends in United States foreign policy.

As the new transatlantic security relationship takes shape, European countries will be expected to make a far bigger commitment to financing the security of the continent. This will include providing the majority of military support for Ukraine. Europe’s defense industry is not yet in a position to meet this challenge, with only limited progress in the production of critical arms and equipment in the three years since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion. Key deficits include essential items such as air defense systems, precision guided munitions, multiple launch rocket systems, and armored infantry fighting vehicles.

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One practical solution to current shortfalls would be for European countries to procure more weapons, ammunition, and equipment for the Ukrainian war effort directly from the United States. However, this would spark an intense debate across the continent, with advocates of Europe’s long-term economic and security interests likely to encounter opposition from those prioritizing the more immediate need to support Ukraine.

Purchasing greater quantities of US arms would certainly help strengthen transatlantic security ties. This would serve as a strong incentive for the United States to maintain a high level of defense sector engagement with European partners. In fact, European countries are already purchasing more from the United States defense sector. Increased European spending was a key factor driving record US arms sales of $318.7 billion in 2024, as countries sought to replenish stocks sent to Ukraine and prepare for the possibility of further international instability.

The changing rhetoric coming out of European capitals in recent months suggests that Europe’s leaders are well aware of the new security realities and the necessity of dedicating considerably more resources to the task of arming themselves. Nevertheless, mounting talk of the need for greater European defense sector autonomy has yet to be matched by increases in military spending and arms manufacturing output. Indeed, a new report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies indicates that Russian military expenditure is currently higher than all European countries combined when calculated in purchasing power parity terms.

As the transatlantic security relationship evolves in the coming months, Europe will face growing pressure to safeguard the continent’s fragile security in a much more decisive manner. The EU is already preparing plans to encourage increased defense spending among member countries as officials in Brussels adapt to changing geopolitical realities. However, the real test of Europe’s determination to defend itself will be in Ukraine. US officials are now unambiguously signalling that Russia’s invasion is primarily a European security issue. Europe’s response to this will reveal much about the future role of the continent in an increasingly multipolar world.

Mykola Bielieskov is a research fellow at the National Institute for Strategic Studies and a senior analyst at Ukrainian NGO “Come Back Alive.” The views expressed in this article are the author’s personal position and do not reflect the opinions or views of NISS or Come Back Alive.

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The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.

Image: DONETSK REGION, UKRAINE – FEBRUARY 9, 2025 – Soldiers man a tank as the 1st Tank Battalion of Ukraine’s 5th Heavy Mechanized Brigade equipped with Leopard 1A5 tanks serves in Kurakhove and Pokrovsk directions, Donetsk region, eastern Ukraine. (Photo by Oleksandr Klymenko/Ukrinform) (Photo by Ukrinform/Ukrinform/Sipa USA)