The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has revealed that increased petrol production at Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery is adding pressure to Europe’s already subdued fuel market. 

In its latest monthly report, OPEC noted that the Dangote Refinery, which began exporting petrol in December 2024, has contributed to an oversupply in the European market. The Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) trading hub has already experienced elevated petrol inventories amidst sluggish seasonal demand, and the refinery’s growing output is compounding this trend. 

OPEC stated, “The ongoing recovery in gasoline refinery output levels will likely exacerbate the already bearish market sentiment.

“Moreover, the ongoing operational ramp-up efforts at Nigeria’s new Dangote refinery and its first gasoline exports to the international market likely weigh further on the European gasoline market.

“Continued gasoline production in Nigeria, a country that has relied heavily on imports to meet its domestic fuel needs in the past, will most likely continue to free up gasoline volumes in international markets which will call for new destinations and flow adjustments for the extra volumes going forward.”

The Dangote Refinery, a significant milestone in Nigeria’s oil industry, commenced diesel and aviation fuel production in January 2024 and petrol production nine months later. Its first petrol export shipment was sent to Cameroon on December 11, 2024. 

As Nigeria transitions from a heavy reliance on fuel imports to becoming an exporter, the global petrol market is expected to experience shifts, necessitating adjustments to accommodate the additional volumes now available for international trade.

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