The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones scaled all-time highs on Wall Street today, while the Nasdaq also jumped, as Republican Donald Trump won the 2024 US presidential election.
The Dow Jones jumped 1.5% at the open to stand at 42,850, while the S&P 500 rose 1.4% to trade at 5,865 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.8% to reach 18,772 at the opening bell.
But European shares were mixed this afternoon, paring back their earlier strong gains after Donald Trump was elected US president.
London’s FTSE index had gained 0.4% to stand at 8,208, while the Paris CAC inched 0.1% higher to trade at 7,414 and the Frankfurt DAX lost 0.3% to reach 19,183.
Dublin’s ISEQ index had also reversed its earlier strong gains to stand 0.3% lower this afternoon.
Analysts generally assume Trump’s plans for restricted immigration, tax cuts and sweeping tariffs if enacted would put more upward pressure on inflation and bond yields, than Harris’ centre-left policies.
Trump’s proposals would also tend to push up the dollar and potentially limit how far US interest rates might ultimately be lowered.
Thus while markets were still confident the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points tomorrow, futures for next year eased into the red with December down 9 ticks.
“As the early results come in, even though none of them are that surprising, we are seeing Treasury yields rising a little bit, the dollar strengthening, bitcoin up; kind of a classic Trump trade,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management.
Yields on 10-year Treasury notes jumped to a four-month high of 4.471%, from 4.279%, breaking last week’s top of 4.388%. Two-year yields climbed to 4.291%, from 4.189% late in New York.
“If we look at the long end of the curve, that reflects the fact that both candidates are not exactly fiscal conservatives, they’re both willing to use the fiscal printing press,” said Arnim Holzer, global macro strategist at Easterly EAB Risk Solutions.
“The biggest issue is if Trump or Harris are going to get full mandates,” he added. “If they don’t get blue or red sweeps, it limits the fiscal damage, and that’s the best outcome for bondholders.”
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased 0.8%, while Japan’s Nikkei rose 2.6% as the yen slid.
In currency markets, the dollar index surged 1.5% to 104.97 – the biggest daily rise since early 2023. The euro slid 1.5% to $1.0772, falling back from a one-month top of $1.0937 struck overnight.
The dollar jumped 1.5% on the Japanese yen to 153.94 yen and further away from a low of 151.34.
Bitcoin climbed as much as 8.54% to reach a record $75,060. Trump is seen as more actively supportive of cryptocurrencies than Harris.
The dollar gained 1% on the offshore yuan to 7.1726 yuan, sparking reports Chinesebanks were selling dollars to slow the yuan’s decline.
China is seen on the front line of tariff risk, and its currency in particular is trading on tenterhooks with implied volatility against the dollar around record highs.
Gold prices were choppy with a dip of 0.3% to $2,734 an ounce, off a recent record peak of 2,790.15.
The sharp rise in the dollar pressured oil prices, and other commodities, as it makes them more expensive when buying in other currencies.
Meanwhile, US crude shed 66 cents to $71.33 per barrel, while Brent fell 76 cents to $74.76.
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