The fight over the budget, known as the multiannual financial framework (MFF), will be “almost impossible,” one EU diplomat, granted anonymity to speak candidly, said.

The role “will be one of the hardest in this next European Commission,” the diplomat continued. “But he’s the right guy for the job – he knows his stuff, he knows the sensitivities, he’s well respected in the European Council and he has the direct ear of Tusk, of which [European Commission Ursula] von der Leyen is well aware.”

Marathon summit

In a sign of Poland’s newly influential status in the EU under Tusk, Serafin will be central to the budget negotiations for the period 2028-2034. Last time, the talks culminated in a five-day marathon summit of leaders after more than two years of back-and-forth between capitals and their representatives in Brussels.

This time around they’re expected to be tougher still.

Serafin will theoretically have a blank slate — but in practice he’ll have to thread the needle between the Commission’s trailblazing ideas and some national capitals’ resistance to change.

The question, as one former colleague put it, is whether being “more of a technocrat than a politician” help or hinder him.