Trainer Charles Appleby knows what it takes to win the Grade 1 Johnnie Walker Natalma Stakes at Woodbine.

Most of Appleby’s horses compete overseas in Europe and Dubai. But when Appleby ships a horse to Woodbine in Canada, watch out. Since 2018, Appleby has won nine Grade 1 races from 12 total starters at Woodbine, including the Natalma with La Pelosa (2018) and Wild Beauty (2021).

Appleby will seek a third Natlama triumph when the 2024 edition of the one-mile turf test for 2-year-old fillies takes place this Saturday. His representative this year is #13 Mountain Breeze, a Godolphin homebred slated to be ridden by Appleby’s go-to jockey William Buick. Since 2017, Buick and Appleby have teamed up to win eight Breeders’ Cup races together. Given that the Natalma awards a “Win and You’re In” berth to the 2024 John Deere Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, there’s a distinct chance Buick and Appleby will head back to the Breeders’ Cup with Mountain Breeze, assuming she runs to expectations at Woodbine.

And expectations are high. Mountain Breeze has shown promising form competing in England. She started her career on May 5 at Newmarket, winning her debut by 2 3/4 lengths before dominating a minor sprint race 13 days later by 2 1/2 lengths.

Mountain Breeze wasn’t quite as fortunate when stepping up in class for the Group 3 Albany Stakes on June 21 at Royal Ascot, but she didn’t run badly in a 16-horse field, finishing fourth by 3 3/4 lengths against the exciting filly Fairy Godmother.

Mountain Breeze then returned to Newmarket for two more stakes. In the Group 2 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes on July 12, she finished second by only three-quarters of a length. The third-place finisher, Heavens Gate, had previously run third in the Albany and subsequently won her next start.

Then came the Group 3 JenningsBet Sweet Solera Stakes Aug. 10. Facing half a dozen rivals, Mountain Breeze took second place, beaten by two lengths by the promising and currently undefeated Lake Victoria.

Some bettors might hesitate to support Mountain Breeze because she’s been beaten in all three of her group stakes starts, and the Natalma is a Grade 1 (equivalent to a Group 1 in Europe). But the competition at Woodbine tends to be easier than in Europe, and Appleby has already won the Natalma with fillies similar to Mountain Breeze. Wild Beauty’s lone group stakes appearance prior to the Natalma was a runner-up finish in the Sweet Solera, while La Pelosa prepped with a second in the Albany, a fifth in the Duchess of Cambridge, and a second in the Sweet Solera.

In short, Mountain Breeze brings a proven profile into the Natalma. We recommend betting her to win and — depending on how much money you want to spend — playing her on top of an exacta for good measure.

Who should we use for second place in the exacta? That’s a tough question, because the Natalma field is still in flux. Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse has entered eight fillies in the Natalma, but many are cross-entered in the Grade 1 bet365 Summer Stakes (which is open to colts and geldings) later in the afternoon at Woodbine. It remains to be seen which fillies will stay in the Natalma and which will opt to face males in the Summer.

Assuming she runs in the Natalma, #4 Winterberry looms as a particularly compelling Casse trainee. She debuted in a maiden special weight race on Woodbine’s all-weather Tapeta Footings main track and left no doubt about her superiority. Winterberry led from start to finish and widened her advantage at every stage of the race, ultimately winning by 5 1/2 lengths under jockey Patrick Husbands.

According to Brisnet statistics, Husbands and Casse have won at an excellent 26% rate teaming up together over the last two months. It’s worth noting two of Casse’s seven previous Natalma winners were ridden by Husbands, so the Casse-Husbands team should never be underestimated. The fact Winterberry worked a sharp half-mile on the Woodbine training turf course in :48 last week adds to the appeal.

Another must-use Natalma entrant is #1 Annascaul from the barn of Christophe Clement, who has won with three of his four starters at Woodbine this year. Annascaul debuted in a maiden special weight race against New York-bred fillies at Saratoga on Aug. 14, a race in which she led all the way to win by three lengths. A daughter of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, Annascaul has the pedigree to shine racing one mile on turf and retains the services of internationally renowned jockey Frankie Dettori.

We’ll round out our exacta play with #11 Vixen, another Casse trainee. After rallying to finish third in her debut sprinting, Vixen proved much the best in a one-mile maiden special weight race on the Ellis Park turf course, pressing a modest pace before finishing eagerly to win by 4 3/4 lengths.

Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget

$10 to win on #13 Mountain Breeze

What to say at the betting window: Woodbine, Race 5, $10 to win on 13

Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget

$18 to win on #13 Mountain Breeze

What to say at the betting window: Woodbine, Race 5, $10 to win on 13

$4 exacta: 13 with 1,4,11 ($12)

What to say at the betting window: Woodbine, Race 5, $4 exacta 13 with 1,4,11

Good luck, and enjoy the race!