Welcome to Wider Europe, RFE/RL’s newsletter focusing on the key issues concerning the European Union, NATO, and other institutions and their relationships with the Western Balkans and Europe’s Eastern neighborhoods.
I’m RFE/RL Europe Editor Rikard Jozwiak, and this week I’m drilling down on two issues: the EU’s new Russian sanctions package and military aid to Armenia and Georgia.
What You Need to Know: On May 8, the European Commission presented a new round of sanctions on Russia and Belarus to the ambassadors of the European Union member states. The proposal, seen by RFE/RL, is actually surprisingly ambitious, given that the bloc has adopted numerous rather weak packages in the past. The big question is whether the measures, if adopted, will retain their clout. As they have to be adopted unanimously, there is a risk of them being watered down.
Surprisingly, the proposed measures touch on Russian energy, something that has been a “no-go” ever since the EU managed to impose a near-ban on Russian oil imports in 2022 after months of diplomatic bickering. This time, the European Commission is proposing to hit Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG).
However, the sanctions proposal does not suggest banning direct imports to the EU, which make up some 5 percent of the bloc’s energy consumption and can be replaced immediately, according to European Commission estimates. Instead, a gradual approach is being suggested by forbidding transshipment, meaning that EU countries would be prevented from reexporting Russian LNG and therefore forcing Russian ships to make longer journeys to reach their final destination.
There is also a ban on investing or providing services for huge Russian LNG-infrastructure projects under construction — Arctic LNG and Murmansk LNG. Big countries such as Germany, France, and Italy have already asked for an impact assessment of how these LNG-related measures will work, suggesting that member states are nervous about this move.
Deep Background: Another issue that might be tricky for EU member states to green-light is a proposed import ban on helium. So far, EU helium imports from Russia only amount to about $1 billion a year, but Russia has the ambition of becoming one of the world’s biggest helium suppliers in the future.
In the proposal, there is also a push to expand the liability of sanctions violations to EU subsidiaries abroad, which could be a step too far for EU member states as they would argue that it is too complicated to keep track of everything that has been decided in Brussels and too much of a regulatory burden for companies.
What else is in the proposal? There is a prohibition on using the System For Transfer Of Financial Messages (SPFS), a sort of Moscow-based SWIFT, which should pass even though Hungary has expressed reservations.
Then there are things that appear straightforward but which potentially may not cut it with member states. One is the restriction on the use and transfer in Russia of plant-variety rights, which give farmers the exclusive control over the planting, harvesting, selling, exporting, and importing of certain species. France and Portugal have voiced concerns here, arguing that such a move could lead to global food scarcity.
It will also be interesting to see if a proposed ban on Russian state financing for EU-based political parties, foundations, think tanks, NGOs, and media service providers in the union won’t be watered down. Some countries, notably Hungary and Slovakia, enjoy warm relations with the Kremlin and might lack the political will; others, such as the Netherlands and Sweden, have constitutional restrictions on the state interfering in media and civil society funding.
The proposed ban on acquiring Ukrainian cultural goods if there are suspicions that these items have been illegally removed from Ukraine should, however, fly. As will a bid to block the operation in the EU of transport companies that are at least 25 percent owned by Russians — a more stringent measure than the status quo, where companies can only be blocked if Russians hold a majority stake. Measures hitting Russia’s so-called shadow fleet, vessels with unclear ownership that Moscow is using to circumvent the bloc’s oil transport ban, are also expected to pass.
Drilling Down
What You Need To Know: One of the more successful, if perhaps underreported, European Union initiatives in recent years is the European Peace Facility (EPF), created back in 2021, to finance actions such as training missions and military equipment in third countries. The facility is outside the regular EU budget, meaning that the 27 member states of the bloc contribute as they see fit.
At the start, it was largely meant to finance projects and missions in Africa with a budget ceiling of 5.6 billion euros ($6 billion), but with the full-scale invasion of Ukraine a year later, the ceiling has now been elevated to 17 billion euros. The EPF has also allowed the EU as an organization for the first time ever to send lethal military aid, with assistance worth nearly $3.9 billion going to Ukraine.
Other countries in the EU’s eastern neighborhood have also benefited from contributions from the fund. Last month, Moldova received some $44 million over a period of 40 months for nonlethal equipment in areas such as air surveillance, electronic warfare, and logistics. Georgia received more than $32 million last year to boost its army in the fields of military engineering, command and control, medical equipment, logistics, and cyberdefense — a sum that came on top of previous contributions from the EU, worth $34.5 million, for similar purposes.
Deep Background: Now, once again, Georgia is in line for more cash from the EPF — as is Armenia. For Armenia, it would be the first time ever it had received such funding and would signify a small but symbolic step for Yerevan in its relationship with the European Union. (There are even rumors in Brussels that Armenia might soon even apply to join the bloc.)
The draft EPF proposal, seen by RFE/RL, also hints at Armenia’s closer cooperation with the bloc: “the assistance measure aims to allow the armed forces to enhance operational effectiveness, accelerate compliance with (European) Union standards and interoperability, and thereby better protect civilians in crises and emergencies. It will also strengthen Armenia’s capacities in regard to its future participation in EU Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP) operations and missions.”
Interestingly, the proposal for Georgia contains the same wording. For both countries, the proposal states that the “objective of the assistance measure is to contribute to the strengthening of the armed forces of the Republic of Armenia/Georgia’s capacities to enhance national security, stability, and resilience in the defense sector.”
Drilling Down
Watch out for the annual meeting of the foreign ministers of the Council of Europe, which focuses on promoting human rights, democracy, and the rule of law on the continent, in Strasbourg on May 16-17. There had been hopes that, after this session, Kosovo would be approved to join the organization. But as Pristina hasn’t submitted a draft law on the establishment of an association of Serbian-majority municipalities — a key sticking point between Kosovo and Serbia — chances now appear slim that this will happen.
NATO countries’ chiefs of defense will assemble in Brussels on May 16 to discuss weapon deliveries to Ukraine, a potential NATO mission to coordinate these deliveries and train troops, and how to ramp up military production in the alliance.
That’s all for this week. Feel free to reach out to me on any of these issues on Twitter @RikardJozwiak, or on e-mail at jozwiakr@rferl.org.
Until next time,
Rikard Jozwiak
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